《大行报告》交银国际:信贷环境收紧下 国企偿债能力仍处合理水平
交银国际发报告表示,最近,中国信用债市场上一些国企的违约风险成为西方媒体广泛报道的焦点。这些面临挑战的企业包括一些重要系统性的机构,如华融。然而,正是因为它们的系统重要性,并由政府多数持股,它们的违约、破产风险受到了有关部门的关注。
该行指,中国信用债占整个债券市场规模的34%。在体量约120万亿人民币的债券市场中,发行主体为中央和地方国有企业的信用债规模约30%。由於这些发债企业与政府的关系,以及由此给人的「刚性兑付」的感觉。目前,在国企债券违约风险上升的情况下,市场之前对於这种债券「无风险」的感觉受到了挑战,指对此并不意外。
交银国际认为,内地信用债市场出现大规模违约仍然不应该是大概率事件。该行数据分析显示,目前违约债券的数目不到债券总个数的2%,违约量也不到总面值的1%。自去年疫情爆发以来,违约债券面额大幅上升。但必须指出的是,这只是信用债市场的很小一部分,在中国债券市场整体中所占的比例就更小了。此外,该行计算表明,国企的EBITDA/利息覆盖率平均为4至6倍,应该足以应对大规模违约风险。
该行指当垃圾债暴跌时,中国股市也会被带下来,就像2018年和2020年初那样。鉴於目前的大环境,垃圾债近期仍将面临压力,因此仍将拖累股市,使股市无法更好地反映当下经济复苏的态势。
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