鋼鐵企業單噸淨利潤有望恢復到歷史最高點
本文來自格隆匯專欄：中信證券研究，作者：唐川林
我們繼續維持2021年是中國鋼鐵行業大年的判斷。需求端在整體宏觀經濟復甦的驅動下不斷恢復，製造業海內外共振上行主線明晰。供應端，碳中和碳達峯的大背景約束有望帶來產量超預期收縮，我們判斷鋼鐵行業將出現明顯供需缺口，行業利潤中樞將顯著提升。考慮到需求的高景氣度以及壓縮產量的結構差異，當前時點我們仍然堅定推薦板材行業的龍頭標的，持續重點推薦寶鋼股份、南鋼股份，建議關注華菱鋼鐵、新鋼股份、馬鋼股份、鞍鋼股份。
▍全球寬鬆預期預計持續，鋼鐵行業有望出現明顯供需缺口。
實體經濟的恢復是推動全球資產配置的最核心要素。全球經濟的復甦的重大背景是全球寬鬆預期能夠持續，有望形成預期資產和實體經濟共振的良好局面，料大宗商品的價格在此階段向上動力更強。預計2021年工業品補庫疊加PMI回升將帶來鋼鐵下游製造業復甦明顯，而發改委及工信部對全年粗鋼產量負增長的指引態度堅決，2021年鋼鐵行業有望出現巨大供需缺口，甚至可能超越2017年。
▍壓產量、強需求、原料讓利三重共振，繼續看好板材行業標的表現。
供應端，長流程鍊鋼的碳排放高於短流程，壓減長流程鍊鋼總量料將成為壓減碳排放的重要手段。而板材基本由長流程工藝生產，故預計供應端相較長材而言會更緊缺。
需求端，預計今年製造業內需外需仍將共振上行，製造業訂單飽滿也直接帶來了板材價格中樞上行。
產業鏈的維度，當前原料端庫存仍處於偏低水平，也佔據了產業鏈中絕大部分利潤。隨着原料供應端持續恢復，疊加年內成材端產量壓減，預計全年維度原料緊缺問題將逐步緩解，成材利潤有望增厚。
▍風險因素：
海外需求復甦不及預期，供應端超預期釋放。
▍投資策略。
我們繼續維持2021年是中國鋼鐵行業大年的判斷。需求端在整體宏觀經濟復甦的驅動下不斷恢復，製造業海內外共振上行主線明晰。供應端，碳中和碳達峯的大背景約束有望帶來產量超預期收縮，我們判斷鋼鐵行業將出現明顯供需缺口，行業利潤中樞將顯著提升。考慮到需求的高景氣度以及壓縮產量的結構差異，當前時點我們仍然堅定推薦板材行業的龍頭標的，持續重點推薦寶鋼股份、南鋼股份，建議關注華菱鋼鐵、新鋼股份、馬鋼股份、鞍鋼股份。
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