國泰君安:維持浦林成山(1809.HK)“收集”評級,目標價10港元
格隆匯4月12日丨國泰君安今日發佈對浦林成山(1809.HK)的研報,維持“收集”評級,6-18個月的目標價為10港元。主要內容如下:
浦林成山2020年股東淨利同比增長26.1%至人民幣6.05億元,符合預期。收入同比增長12.4%至人民幣62.83億元,是由銷量增長(同比增長22.4%)所帶動,但因原材料價格下跌令平均售價下降而略有拖累。對OEM的直接銷售額增長最多(同比+43.0%),同時2020年美國市場份額增加(同比增長1.7個百分點)。由於原材料價格下降和銷售結構改善,毛利率同比增長3.1個百分點至22.3%。
全球經濟復甦和產能擴張將推動浦林成山。2020年,公司的表現一直優於整體市場水平。我們認為,全球和中國的經濟復甦將有助於輪胎銷售。此外,泰國工廠(第一期)的新產能將在2021年全部投產。泰國工廠(第二期)和榮成工廠的擴張計劃將於2021年啟動,到2022年將使輪胎產能增加到2,975萬條。
我們將基準年向前推到2021年。我們將2021年股東利潤預測略微降低了4.2%,但將2022年的預測提高了2.0%。調整後,預測2021年至2023年股東利潤將同比分別增長30.6%/ 24.7%/ 27.4%,3年複合年增長率為27.5%。
2020年的業績表明了公司的應變能力。高產能利用率(>90%)證明了公司產品的需求強勁,認為收入前景很明確。將目標價上調至10.00港元,維持投資評級為“收集”,分別相當於6.7倍2021年市盈率和5.4倍2022年市盈率。
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