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《大行报告》麦格理下调阿里巴巴(09988.HK)目标价至359元 评级「跑赢大市」
阿思达克 04-08 09:40
麦格理发表的研究报告,将阿里巴巴(09988.HK)目标价降至359元,期望是最後一次降公司目标价,不过认为仍需要数月时间研究其业务发展,虽然该行对行业采取审慎的看法,不过仍认为阿里在同业中较可取,维持「跑赢大市」评级,认为大部分风险已反映在股价上。

该行表示与公司讨论後,认为投资将於新一财年有较大影响,即6月份的季度以後,估计公司3月份的季度将受投资於社区团购等新业务所拖累,将公司3月份的季度非通用会计准则EBITA预测由355亿元人民币,降至276亿元人民币,而市场预期则为335亿元。

麦格理认为竞争对手似乎正投入更多资源在社区团购等新业务上,对公司在社区团购的投资预测从190亿元人民币,上调至240亿元人民币,认为阿里将在新业务上维持进取的投资计划,包括淘宝特价版及直播等,同时亦料公司将加强获客及留住「饿了麽」的用户。为审慎起见,该行将公司2022年非通用会计准则EBITA预测由2,030亿元人民币,降至1,890亿元人民币,低於市场预期的2,200亿元人民币,认为风险对盈利带来了影响。

不过值得庆幸的是公司整体收入趋势健康,料3月份的季度客户管理收入(CMR)按年增39%,主要受惠淘宝及天猫商品交易额提升,以及抽成有温和改善。(el/u) ~

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