《大行报告》大和上调龙湖(00960.HK)目标价至55.9元 评级「买入」
大和发表的研究报告指,龙湖集团(00960.HK)去年核心盈利187亿元人民币(下同),按年升20%符预期,派息每股1.43元,意味派息比率为45%,与2019年一致,公司去年整体毛利率29.3%,而2019年则为33.6%,公司目标未来数年毛利率可逾25%。
该行指出,公司目标今年合约销售增15%至3,100亿元,高於该行预期,可售资源约4,700亿元,意味去化率要求为66%,而其中68%可售资源为全新项目及现有项目的新一期,96%位於一、二线城市,管理层估计未来数年销售增长可达双位数,亦高於该行预测。
大和指出尽管受疫情影响,公司去年可持续收入仍增33%至135.7亿元,其中投资物业租金收入按年升31%至75.8亿元,物管及其他业务收入则升35%至59.9亿元,公司今年将推11个新商场,2022年则推13个,2022年之後最少每年推10个商场,目标未来数年租金收入每年增长30%以上。管理层亦料长租公寓今年可扭亏,而收入将达20亿元,未来数年租金收入增长逾30%。在智能服务方面,公司去年底在管面积为1.72亿平方米,目标每年收入增长可逾30%。
该行留意到公司财务表现持续强劲,与同业有所不同,而截至去年底公司於「三道红线」的政策下维持在「绿线」组别内,净负债水平降至46%,而债务与资产比率仅为67%,现金与短债比率则为4.24倍,平均融资成本由2019年的4.54%降至4.39%。该行将公司2021至2023年合约销售预测升3%至5%,目标价由51.3元升至55.9元,重申「买入」评级,认为公司业务有稳健基础,同时有望在市场份额及盈利上录持续增长。
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