《大行报告》高盛上调新东方在线(01797.HK)评级至「中性」 目标价降至18元
高盛发表研究报告,指长线对内地线上课後补习(AST)渗透持正面看法,但相信在近期监管收紧及新生招募渠道(在地推广、线下体验馆及校内解决方案)相对规模收缩下,料线上AST增长将温和放缓,并对线上AST服务商短期收入增长势头看法更趋审慎。
报告称,自去年6月初将新东方在线(01797.HK)评级降至「沽售」以来,公司股价累跌49%,同期恒指累升17%,该行所覆盖内地教育股平均升4%。该行持续认为行业中蕴藏更吸引机遇,如新东方-S(09901.HK)、中教控股(00839.HK)、宇华教育(06169.HK)。考虑新东方在线近期股价跑输,报告上调其投资评级由「沽售」升至「中性」,以现金流折现率计,目标价由22元降至18元。
高盛认为,新东方在线作为内地较小线上补习商,料续面对竞争挑战,特别是行业龙头开始渗透线下渠道招生,扩大收生基础以进一步渗透至三、四线城市。高盛维持对其收入及经营溢利预测不变,惟下调其2022至2025财年经调整每股盈测平均2分人民币,以反映利息收入减少,仍预期其2020至2023财年收入复合增长达54%,受惠K-12课後补习复合增长达118%带动,并料其在2024财年非通用会计准则计经营溢利层面可达收支平衡。
高盛补充,内地线下补习持续恢复,包括北京,相较线上补习,线下补习潜在监管影响较高可见度,对线下补习复苏维持正面看法,行业首选新东方-S,并位列确信买入名单。
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