《大行报告》大和:内地收紧电子烟监管 料思摩尔(06969.HK)短期受压 但长期影响可控
大和发表报告表示,国家工信部于昨日(22日)收市後公布《关於修改中华人民共和国烟草专卖法实施条例的决定(徵求意见稿)》,建议电子烟将如传统香烟般一样受到管制,此意味着相关税率上升,该行估计新规定可能会降低思摩尔国际(06969.HK)在中国的利润率。
该行认为思摩尔国际股价短期将面临压力,但由于思摩尔国际於2020年仅约20%的销售额来自中国,因此估计相关影响都应可控。该行认为内地对电子烟的新法规,表明中国政府愿意让电子烟行业长期健康发展意愿,此最终可以消除电子烟行业长期存在的主要问题。
大和指目前,中国电子烟被归为普通消费品,因此仅需缴纳13%的增值税率,对比传统香烟的总税则超过50%(包括消费税)。该行认为目前量化对思摩尔国际的影响属言之过早,但该行认为实际的财务影响将受到以下限制,据该行估计思摩尔至2020年只有约20%的收入来自中国内地;第二是该行估计产品零售价是出厂价4至6倍,因此有足够的空间来吸收税收增长;第三是电子烟的需求是相当缺乏弹性的,因此成本增加很可能会转嫁给最终客户;第四是负担很可能在多个行业价值链中分布不均,品牌所有者承担了更大的负担。尽管零售价格可能会上涨,但监於内地的渗透率较低,该行预计电子烟的需求不会显着减弱。
该行重申对思摩尔国际「跑赢大市」评级及目标价90元,此相当预测今年动态市盈率1.8倍。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.