《大行报告》大和降天虹纺织(02678.HK)评级至「跑赢大市」 目标价15元
大和发表的研究报告指,天虹纺织(02678.HK)管理层指,去年下半年业绩反映大部分业务在疫情後已接近正常化水平,考虑到棉花价格升势持续半年,认为公司去年第四季利润扩张情况有望在今年首季继续改善,不过棉花价格向上的势头在2月尾开始减慢,相信大部分正面因素已反映在股价上,投资者可等待更好的入市机会。
该行指出,公司纱线业务的毛利率由去年上半年的10.6%改善至下半年的15.3%。管理层指出第三季表现弱势,不过第四季则有改善。该行相信在正常市场状况下相关毛利率一般逾17-18%,而公司则将毛利率扩张归因於棉花价格向上。该行指公司棉花库存大约有三至四个月,去年下半年全球棉花价格升约28%,升势在今年1月至2月初亦持续,故料今年下半年公司毛利率扩张程度或较上半年温和。
公司重申中期策略希望扩张下游业务,冀未来三至五年相关收入贡献可达50%,而去年相关占比仅22%,去年公司净负债情况显着改善,该行相信往後亦会持续,亦不排除派息长远可增加。该行将公司2021-22年核心净利预测降1-4%,以反映对今年下半年看法较保守,目标价由7.8元升至15元,但认为上行空间有限,评级由「买入」降至「跑赢大市」,对公司长远看法正面,不过担心棉花价格利好趋势能否持续。
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