《大行报告》美银证券上调铝、铜价预测 升中铝、紫金及江铜目标价重申「买入」
美银证券发表研究报告,指该行全球商品团队上调有色金属基本预测,当中今明两年以铝的上调幅度最大,分别达13%及37%。该行亦上调中国今年铝价预测,由每吨14,500元人民币升至16,400元人民币。其对铝乐观看法建基於春节後铝锭库存增长较预期温和;内地对排放及能源消费的控制,近期见於内蒙;持续需求反弹,料未来数季供应持续短缺。该行称,考虑相对充裕新产能及现时暂停的产能可恢复,及成本曲线趋平坦,本地氧化铝市场料大致稳定。
报告称,对铜看法大致正面,上调今明两年铜价预测分别8%及5%,料今年按年升52%至每吨9,381美元,明年按年升3%至9,625美元。美银证券另下调今明两年金价预测分别12%及3%,料今年按年升3%至每安士1,818美元,明年按年升2%至每安士1,850美元。
美银证券表示,为反映对铜看法更加正面,上调中国铝业(02600.HK)今明两年税後纯利预测分别76%及120%,目标价由3元大升至5元,重申「买入」,主因其直接或间接持有铝厂的良好毛利率;料铝贡献今年毛利的74%,氧化铝则占16%。报告称,铝及氧化铝销售均价每1%改变,将影响其今年税後纯利分别1.6%及5%。另报告称,中铝的铝及氧化铝产出持续稳定增加。由於铝土矿进口增加,成本持续减省;另中铝现估值不高,仅相当於今年预测市帐率0.9倍。
此外,报告称,考虑上调铜价预测,但下调金价预测,以及最新生产指引,该行上调紫金矿业(02899.HK)今明两年盈测介乎3%至6%,意味今年纯利按年升115%,明年升39%,H股目标价由10.5元升至13元,重申「买入」,指其今明两年铜产量料按年升24%及50%,金产量料按年升33%及25%,2025年後,铜产量料超过100万吨;被开采铜、金料分别贡献今年毛利57%及31%;铜价及金价每升1%将提振其今年纯利0.6%及1.2%。紫金现估值相当於今年预测市盈率16倍。
美银证券补充,上调江西铜业(00358.HK)今明两年盈测介乎8%至9%,意味今年纯利按年升143%,明年升12%;考虑最新有色金属价格及外汇预测後,H股目标价由16元升至20元,重申「买入」。该行认为,江铜属铜交易的良好替代品,铜价上升料带来市占增加。报告估算,铜价每升1%将提振其今年税後纯利1.6%。
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