東方證券:給予聯想集團(0992.HK)買入評級,目標價13.12港元
格隆匯3月8日丨東方證券3月7日發研報,首次給予聯想集團(0992.HK)買入評級,目標價13.12港元,較3月5日的收盤價9.98港元有31.47%的潛在上升空間。
核心觀點如下:
全球PC龍頭,服務器、手機業務份額居前:公司是全球PC龍頭,2020年第四季度全球市場份額達25.2%,並且在 EMEA地區(歐洲、中東、非洲)首次超越惠普取得份額第一。移動業務方面,公司聚焦具有競爭優勢的地區和國家,智能手機在拉丁美洲位居份額第二,在北美市場第五。X86服務器在全球主要地區份額也穩居前五。
遠程學習、辦公等非接觸式場景帶來PC需求持續性增量:手機、平板電腦定位愈發清晰,對PC替代效應減弱,疫情下居家時間的延長增加了消費者對PC的青睞,2020年全球PC出貨超3億台。長期來看,遠程學習、辦公模式將向常態化發展,教育領域、企業對 PC 採購量將持續快速增長;此外,眾多新興非接觸式業態將進一步打開PC行業發展空間。目前,受限於零部件供給不足,PC需求仍有較大潛力待釋放,全球PC渠道端存貨水平亦處於低位,隨着供給端改善,PC市場規模將繼續提升。
手機業務扭虧為盈,IDC業務虧損持續收窄:手機業務近幾個季度虧損持續收窄,最近季度已實現扭虧為盈,未來伴隨5G換機和公司旗艦機型的推出有望持續改善。IDC業務伴隨海內外主要雲計算廠商資本開支回暖,公司在本財年前三季度實現營收47億美元,同比增長10%;第三季度虧損收窄至3300萬美元,同比虧損減少1400萬美元。未來雲計算的高景氣將帶動公司IDC業務持續成長。
智能化轉型帶來成長新動能:公司提出3S戰略,發力智能物聯網、智能基礎架構、行業智能。智能物聯網領域,公司以 PC 為軸向各類智能終端拓展;智能基礎架構領域,針對不同客户提供不同數據中心產品組合;行業智能領域,可為企業客户提供全域智能化解決方案,已應用於汽車、能源、製造等多個領域。隨着物聯網、工業互聯網的發展,公司智能化業務將持續成長。
財務預測與投資建議
公司在科創板上市的計劃引起境內投資者關注。我們預測公司FY20/21-FY22/23年每股收益分別為0.09、0.11、0.11美元,根據可比公司21年(對應公司 FY21/22)16 倍市盈率水平,給予目標價13.12港幣(美元港幣匯率採用 1:7.75),首次給予買入評級。
風險提示:PC行業景氣度下行、行業競爭加劇、雲計算景氣度不達預期、零部件缺貨風險、分業務利潤率不達預期。
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