星展料今年楼价平稳 写字楼租金续跌5-10%
星展香港房地产业分析师丘卓文出席线上发布会时指,去年楼价维持稳定,全年仅跌1%左右,与以往下行周期有不同的地方,只是一手成交受社交距离措施影响,成交按年有所下跌。他认为去年刚需强劲,有别於过往下行周期,楼价未见急跌,而大众化市场新盘亦卖得不错,主要因为政府放宽按揭成数限制,首期要求有所降低带动刚需。
他续指去年豪宅市场表现较大众化市场差,主要因为封关後买家未能来港「睇楼」,故仅靠本地富豪支持,表现逊於一般住宅。他预期低息环境持续,业主持货能力较强,加上在新供应偏少的情况下对市场亦有支持,料今年楼市将平稳上落5%。他认为未来需留意移民人数增加会否令二手市场出现抛售情况,不过暂时未见有类似情况,另外如通关对豪宅市场亦有正面影响。
至於财政预算案拟将启德商业地改划为住宅地,他认为商业物业投资期较住宅长,在经济环境不确定下发展商未必愿意付高地价作长回本期的投资,加上地皮远离地铁站,作为商业用地未算理想,故料作住宅用途对土地价值更好。
在写字楼方面,他指出去年中环区空置率升至7.5%近廿年高位,去年中环写字楼租金亦跌22-23%,认为租金仍未见底,考虑环球经济不明朗,加上跨国企业难来港「睇楼」,出租亦有困难,故料今年租金压力持续,料续跌5-10%。
在零售市场方面去年下半年虽有所改善,不过社交距离措施仍对餐饮业有较大影响,相信随着疫苗推出冀可恢复通关,料将带动旅游来港消费,惟忧虑内地旅客习惯在内地购买奢侈品後,在港消费难回复至疫情前水平。他预期经历去年租金跌逾三成後,今年零售租金将维持平稳,不过续租会再有减租情况。而该行在地产股中较喜欢新世界发展(00017.HK),认为公司除了卖楼情况理想外在各地亦有新项目落成,而收租股则喜欢在内地接触面较多的恒隆地产(00101.HK)及太古(00019.HK)。(el/k) ~
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