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星展料今年樓價平穩 寫字樓租金續跌5-10%
阿思達克 03-03 11:55
星展香港房地產業分析師丘卓文出席線上發布會時指,去年樓價維持穩定,全年僅跌1%左右,與以往下行週期有不同的地方,只是一手成交受社交距離措施影響,成交按年有所下跌。他認為去年剛需強勁,有別於過往下行週期,樓價未見急跌,而大眾化市場新盤亦賣得不錯,主要因為政府放寬按揭成數限制,首期要求有所降低帶動剛需。

他續指去年豪宅市場表現較大眾化市場差,主要因為封關後買家未能來港「睇樓」,故僅靠本地富豪支持,表現遜於一般住宅。他預期低息環境持續,業主持貨能力較強,加上在新供應偏少的情況下對市場亦有支持,料今年樓市將平穩上落5%。他認為未來需留意移民人數增加會否令二手市場出現拋售情況,不過暫時未見有類似情況,另外如通關對豪宅市場亦有正面影響。

至於財政預算案擬將啟德商業地改劃為住宅地,他認為商業物業投資期較住宅長,在經濟環境不確定下發展商未必願意付高地價作長回本期的投資,加上地皮遠離地鐵站,作為商業用地未算理想,故料作住宅用途對土地價值更好。

在寫字樓方面,他指出去年中環區空置率升至7.5%近廿年高位,去年中環寫字樓租金亦跌22-23%,認為租金仍未見底,考慮環球經濟不明朗,加上跨國企業難來港「睇樓」,出租亦有困難,故料今年租金壓力持續,料續跌5-10%。

在零售市場方面去年下半年雖有所改善,不過社交距離措施仍對餐飲業有較大影響,相信隨著疫苗推出冀可恢復通關,料將帶動旅遊來港消費,惟憂慮內地旅客習慣在內地購買奢侈品後,在港消費難回復至疫情前水平。他預期經歷去年租金跌逾三成後,今年零售租金將維持平穩,不過續租會再有減租情況。而該行在地產股中較喜歡新世界發展(00017.HK),認為公司除了賣樓情況理想外在各地亦有新項目落成,而收租股則喜歡在內地接觸面較多的恆隆地產(00101.HK)及太古(00019.HK)。(el/k) ~

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