《大行报告》大摩下调港交所(00388.HK)评级至「与大市同步」 降目标价至485元
摩根士丹利发表的研究报告指,虽然对港交所(00388.HK)长远展望维持正面,不过相信港府拟提升股票印花税加上中美或有机会加息等,将进一步延迟换手率上升速度,将港交所评级由「增持」降至「与大市同步」,估计股份会在现水平整固,目标价由580元降至485元。
该行认为港股近期波动反映市场对加息环境更敏感,而《财政预算案》计划提升股票印花税措施料在8月生效,加上息口上升预期进一步升温,或会减慢换手率提升步伐,而近期南下资金减慢亦是证据之一。该行微降对成交量及换手率的预测,并将2021及22年换手率预测分别降5%及10%,明白多项因素会影响短期交投,不过换手率倾向在升市时快速提升,并於市场整固是下降。该行认为经济强劲复苏将支持企业盈利增长,例如是银行业等,不过相关行业通常有较低换手率。该行将公司由580元降至485元,认为可等待更好的入场机会,因为自去年初以来股份已升近90%。
至於为何不将股份评级降至「跑输大市」,该行则指继续相信港交所长远结构性机遇未变,相信仍会是本地及海外资金汇聚处,而中港两地换手率的差异亦有望收窄,此外亦预期新业务包括A股指数期货等可支持公司股价,不过时间表则较难预测。
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