《大行报告》摩通:港交所(00388.HK)因加股票印花税受挫 认为股价调整过度
摩根大通发表报告表示,港交所(00388.HK)今日股价挫逾8%,主要是市场关注港府拟提交法案调整股票印花税税率,由现时买卖双方按交易金额各付0.1%提高至0.13%,基於港交所业务性质属「独市」,投资者要作另一选项机会有限,该行认为港交所今日股价反应属过度,并指公司去年第四季业绩优於预期。
按该行估算,港府上调股票印花税税率,将令投资者最终交易成本上升约27%至1.42%(原先为1.12%),即股票印花税占交易成本由原来90%升至92%,相信对港股波动比率有细小影响,虽然该行认为仍难以简单量化。
【料调整已过度 待良好介入点】
摩通指,港交所股价回调逾8%後,反映预期港股日均成交额为2,700亿元水平,相信其今日股价对港府上调股票印花税税率的反应属过度。该行指仍看好港交所中期(未来两至五年)前景,因为港交所提供了最独特的服务之一,属协助全球资本流动平台之一、第二是集团收入分配需要匹配市场对其股价可持续上涨的期望。第三是公司为保持增长持续所作的努力。该行认为港交所一旦呈显着调整,将关注其何时提供良好介入点。
就港交所公布去年第四季纯利录29.25亿元按年升48%,高於该行原预期7%,公司去年纯利录115.05亿元按年升23%,高於该行及市场同业原预期1至2%。摩通维持对港交所「中性」评级及目标价500元,此相当预测市盈率38倍。
摩通估计港股今年日均成交额2,960亿元、料明年日均成交额将进一步升至3,270亿元,料可受惠内地经济复苏、全球流动性、更多第二上市企业获纳入南向交易名单、更多新经济概念股上市等。
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