《大行报告》麦格理:市场准备迎商品「超级周期」 中铝、洛钼、中国东方及赣锋锂业上行空间大
麦格理发表研究报告,受惠宽松流动性及疫苗带动经济强劲复苏,市场已开始准备迎接或长达两年商品「超级周期」。本周铜价升至每吨约9,000美元,创九年高(年初至今累升15%);铝、锂、钴及钢铁年初至今亦累升2%至59%创多年高。
该行就所覆盖资源股的盈利/估值潜在上行作情境分析,相对现价,潜在估值上行幅度最大为中国铝业(02600.HK)(达96%)、随後为洛阳钼业(03993.HK)(90%)、中国东方集团(00581.HK)(72%)、赣锋锂业(01772.HK)(70%)、宝钢(600019.SH)(43%)及鞍钢(00347.HK)(24%),而紫金(02899.HK)及马钢(00323.HK)的上行空间相对较小。
报告称,铜是现时市场热炒商品。受惠全球电动化及去碳趋势,看到洛钼今年纯利上行空间达96%,股价上行空间达90%。紫金现价已反映有色金属价格上行,上行空间有限。
此外,麦格理表示,碳酸锂及氢氧化锂价格今年累升37%及20%,以现货价计,料赣锋锂业今年纯利上行空间达60%,股价上行空间达70%。市场预期今年锂价将进一步升至每吨8万至10万元人民币。
报告解释,铝受惠於电动车轻量化趋势及住宅竣工加快,现货价计中铝潜在股价上行空间达96%。另考虑现货钢价及铁矿砂价格,料宝钢、鞍钢及中国东方有24%至72%的上行空间,而马钢估值已高昂。
麦格理料「再通胀」投资主题短期持续,料在全球电动化、去碳减排及中国新基建支持下,铜、铝、锂及钴的长期基本面将改善。该行重申今年首选:赣锋锂业、洛钼、紫金、福耀玻璃(03606.HK)、中国建材(03323.HK)、玖纸(02689.HK)及信义玻璃(00868.HK)。
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