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東吳證券:關注緬甸政局動盪對稀土供給的影響
格隆匯 02-02 14:35

據新華社消息,緬甸執政黨全國民主聯盟發言人表示,當地時間2月1日凌晨,緬甸總統温敏、國務資政昂山素季及一些民盟高級官員被軍方扣押。當前,緬甸多座城市出現大範圍通信中斷。緬甸軍方電視台表示,開始實施為期一年的緊急狀態,國家權力被移交給國防軍總司令。

緬甸是全球稀土產區之一

全球稀土供給較為集中,緬甸是僅次於中美的產區之一。根據USGS初步統計數 據2019年全球稀土礦產量21萬噸,中國稀土礦產量13.2萬噸,佔比63%;美國、緬甸、澳大利亞分別佔比12%、10.5%、10%。考慮到私採、盜採等,實際數據可能更高。

2018年我國從緬甸進口中重離子型稀土礦約2.58萬噸,佔全年離子型稀土消費量的一半以上。

2019年由於緬甸方面兩度封關,禁止緬甸所有稀土礦進入中國,當年緬甸對我國離子型中重稀土出口量驟降至1.56萬噸,但在我國中重稀土進口總配額中仍佔比45%。儘管受封關政策制約,緬甸北部礦山地區的管控仍較為鬆懈,對中國的稀土礦出口並未停止。

2020年全年我國合計從緬甸進口了6625噸離子型稀土、17512噸未列明稀土氧化物。

緬甸政局動盪 中重稀土潛在受影響最大

區別於美國、澳大利亞等國擁有的氟碳鈰稀土礦(以鐠釹輕稀土為主),離子型稀土礦擁有鏑和鋱等中重稀土,是我國重要的戰略資源,開採指標受到嚴格限制,2013年至今開採指標僅增加1250噸,2020年為19150噸。東吳證券認為,若緬甸方面受政治因素影響礦山減產、停產或出口管制,將對中重稀土供給產生較大沖擊。

全球稀土供需格局將持續緊張

需求端,隨着稀土下游的新能源車、風電、變頻空調領域持續放量,對稀土的需求將持續增加。供給端,2017年起,美國、澳大利亞、緬甸等國稀土礦恢復生產,全球稀土供給量過去三年實現翻倍,但受到產能制約,未來三到五年全球很難再有新增產能投放,稀土供給受限。綜合來看,全球稀土供給缺口有望持續擴大。

投資建議:持續看好稀土行業

東吳證券表示,持續看好稀土行業,建議關注盛和資源(600392)、北方稀土(600111)、五礦稀土(000831)。邏輯重申:

1)本次漲價為需求勞動,包括新能源車、風電、空調壓縮機等各下游快速增長;

2)過去幾年盈利不佳導致部分稀土企業關停,產能有些收縮,同時行業一直處於去庫存階段,目前無論企業還是流通商的庫存在歷史上處於較低水平;

3)工信部上週發的稀土建議條例,明確稀土盜採的懲罰措施,以及可能關停或禁採的條件,較往年力度更嚴;

4)供給端配額可能繼續增加,但相對於需求來講增速偏低,供需緊張局面會持續較長時間。相關個股20年年報業績預增,盈利趨勢向好。

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