《大行报告》中金:内地货币政策回归中性 而非系统性收紧
中金发表报告表示,内地1月以来的资金面收紧态势加剧,昨日短端利率大幅上升,银行间市场DR001利率上行至2.77%创逾十三个月新高,交易所 GC001利率一度上升202基点报4.99%,录去年中以来最高。
该行指,从资金供给看,1月以来人行公开市场投放持续较少,相较於去年11月和12月公开市场各2,786亿和2,985亿人民币的净投放量,1月首26日累计净回笼3,610亿人民币,本月还出现了多次20亿至50亿人民币少见的低量逆回购。
中金认为,内地政策操作不代表货币政策系统性收紧,短期内利率可能在处於区间波动状态,除了通胀和经济增长,楼市走势及金融风险等也是货币政策的重要考量。从经济增长看,虽然短期受外需提振,去年第四季度GDP 增速较快,但需求追赶供给,经济不至於出现过热。复苏依然不稳固不平衡。2021年通胀总体较为温和,服务CPI仍较低迷,因低基数而短暂冲高的PPI难致货币收紧。加上金融「再平衡」带来市场自发的「紧信用」,信用利差仍在高位,3至4月即将迎来偿债高峰,宏观政策的态势或呈现「紧信用 、松货币、宽财政」的组合。
不过,近期少数城市楼市过热风险升温说明货币政策也难明显放松,而近日货币政策边际收紧也释放了继续防止楼市过热的信号。虽然针对少数城市楼市升温更多依赖「一城一策」,但是货币政策也要避免明显宽松带来的加杆杆现像。首季度人行或通过逆回购、TMLF、再贷款、或定向降准等方式来加大投放流动性 ,而全面降准的可能性较低。
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