特步國際(01368.HK)：四季度超預期，有望帶動估值重估，維持“買入”評級，目標價5.09港元
機構：招商銀行
評級：買入
目標價：5.09港元
特步四季度流水增長亮麗，快於同行，且庫存水平更健康。因此，我們認為其風險回報吸引，估值有望重估。維持買入評級，並將目標價上調至5.09 港元，基於 14 倍 22 財年預測市盈率（之前為 13 倍 21 財年）。當前股價相當於 14/11 倍 21/22 財年預測市盈率。
在品牌持續升級所推動下，四季度零售增速超預期。特步四季度核心品牌零售流水同比增長高單位數，快於招銀國際預測的 5％，亦高於三季度的中單位數，甚至快於安踏的低單位數增長。除了較早和較冷的冬天，特步還對營銷，產品，電商和線下進行了一系列升級。例如：1）雙十一期間營銷方式更年輕化；2）推出更多中國文化產品（例如，天乘系列）和跨界產品（例如，特步 x 少林），3）開設更多旗艦店（例如，廈門的“X-STREET”和深圳的特步第 9 代店）。
儘管四季度零售折扣穩定，但庫存水平持續改善。除了增長，其他指標亦令人相當鼓舞，儘管零售折扣為 30％至 35％（與三季度相同），但特步的庫銷比降低比低於 5 個月（三季度約 5 個月），甚至優於安踏的約 5 個月。
但我們認為，K-swiss 和 Palladium 生意仍然艱難。隨着第二波新冠肺炎繼續在歐盟和美國肆虐，電商佔比較少的 K-swiss 和 Palladium或比其他領先品牌會遭受更大打擊。因此我們預計 20 財年銷售將同比下降 31％（此前預測為 22％），但由於採取更嚴格的成本管控，虧損將保持在 1500 萬美元（約合 1 億元人民幣）。
特步估值有望復甦。我們十分同意特步的估值應該有所折讓（相較安踏和李寧），因為特步的市場份額較小，財務狀況較弱且增長較慢（主要相較 FILA 和李寧）。但是，鑑於其四季度業績好於行業，我們認為約 70％、處於歷史高位的折讓水平（5年平均為 50％）並不合理。因此，如果 21 財年核心品牌基本面持續改善，我們認為折讓縮小到 50％左右不會令人驚訝。
維持買入評級，目標價上調至 5.09 港元。我們將 20/21/22 財年每股收益預測調整-1％/+5％/+6％，以考慮到 K＆P 銷售額降幅超出預期和特步核心品牌銷售額增長較快。基於 14/11 倍 21/22 財年預測市盈率的具有吸引力的估值，維持買入評級，並將目標價上調至 5.09港元，相當於 14 倍 22 財年預測市盈率（之前為 13 倍 21 財年）。
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