玖龍紙業(02689.HK)：包裝紙龍頭企業，規模優勢與成本優勢並顯，給予“買入”評級，目標價15.27港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：15.27港元
投資要點
玖龍紙業為全國最大包裝紙企業：
玖龍紙業是亞洲最大的箱板原紙生產商，從事生產及銷售多樣化的包裝紙板產品。2011-2020 財年營業收入的複合增速為 11%。毛利方面，2016-2020財年分別為 58.6/79.8/115.9/85.2/90.3 億元，複合增速為 9%。淨利潤方面2016-2020 財年為 11.2/43.8/78.5/38.8/41.9 億元，複合增速為 30.1%。
產能與市佔率達到行業首位：
截止到 2020 財年玖龍紙業造紙總設計產能為 1674 萬噸，造漿設計產能為 85萬噸，居於行業首位。玖龍紙業包裝紙市場佔有率達到 23%，未來隨着中小廠商因為成本上漲和供給側改革而逐步推出市場，市場佔有率也會隨之升高。
國內外佈局紙廠漿廠，穩定獲得高質量原材料：
2021 年進口廢紙額歸零，國廢需求大幅上漲，同時國廢和廢紙漿等原材料價格因為外廢逐漸趨零而漸漸走高，玖龍紙業早期在國內外佈局紙漿廠，包括在天津中南和美國中南穩定採購廢紙與漿，並且玖龍紙業在越南、美國、馬來西亞分別收購紙廠漿廠，總共新增產能達到 227 萬噸以上，因此獲得穩定的高質量的原料來源，降低了原材料價格波動等影響。高質量的原材料讓玖龍紙業從而擁有持續製造高端產品的能力，未來對提升毛利率大有助益。
成本支撐下，包裝紙漲價持續：
國廢和廢紙漿等原材料價格因為外廢逐漸趨零而漸漸走高，玖龍紙業在 2020 年底開始發佈各個基地的提價函，我們認為在各個基地的提價的情況下，玖龍紙業作為龍頭的規模優勢較為明顯，未來給公司帶來毛利率上升的空間。
首次覆蓋給予買入評級，目標價 15.27 港元：
玖龍紙業在包裝紙業務上的龍頭地位穩固，外廢歸零，佈局國內外國廢渠道，具有規模優勢以及成本優勢，營收增速及盈利能力可觀，我們認為公司具有中長期穩定成長的實力。給予公司目標價 15.27 港元，對應 2021-2023 財年 PE 為 11.1/10.3/9.5 倍 PE，較現價有 25.7%的漲幅空間，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
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