安踏體育(02020.HK)：Q4業績穩健，21年有望企穩回升，維持“買入”評級，目標價156.93港元
機構：國元國際
評級：買入
目標價：156.93港元
Q4 安踏主品牌略低預期
安踏大貨 Q4 零售金額同比低單位數的正增長，略低於預期主要由於：1）Q4 優先處理 Q1 庫存。Q4 訂單有所減少，同時加大零售折扣。但庫銷比恢復到 5 倍，售罄率亦繼續改善，優於去年同期。2）DTC 轉型快於預期，目前 80%以上店鋪已在交接，因此加大了庫存清理，影響了短期表現。全年來看，安踏品牌負中位數雖然低於我們此前的預期，但考慮到庫存和 DTC 因素，屬於合理範圍，且該表現不遜於同業對手。
FILA 超預期，迪桑特領銜其他品牌
FILAQ4 零售金額同比 25-30%的正增長，好於預期主要由於 ：1）FILAQ4 策略性調整零售折扣，抓連帶率，客單價，提升店效效果較好。Q4店效已經高於疫情前水平。2）庫存水平逐漸恢復。雖然 Q4 庫存還在 6以上，但結合零售折扣和電商佔比加大的因素來看，未來庫存水平有望繼續回暖。3、其他品牌 Q4 達到 55-60%的增長（Q1 負增長，Q2 恢復到 20 以上增長，Q3 50%增長，逐季度轉好）。其中迪桑特 Q4 增長 80%，Kolon 增加 30-40%。我們認為 FILA 的客羣穩定，恢復迅速，未來仍將增長，同時看好迪桑特在公司平台的培育下持續成長。
2021 年增速有望企穩回升
公司 Q4 庫銷比按季度回暖，安踏大貨回到 5 倍。售罄率上，安踏大貨比去年同期顯著改善 9%。公司預計 2021 年安踏和 FILA 流水分別可以增長 10%/20%，且利潤率可回到 2019 年水平。結合 AMER 利潤水平回暖，我們認為 20201 年有望整體呈現企穩回升的趨勢。
維持“買入”評級，給予目標價 156.93 港元
綜合來看，公司 Q4 業績穩健回暖，全年業績短期受疫情影響，但不改長期增長。預計公司 2020/2021/2022 的 EPS 分別為 1.91/2.77/3.35 元，給予2021 年 52 倍 PE，給予公司目標價 156.93 港元，維持“買入”評級。
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