安踏體育(02020.HK)：Q4流水符合預期，庫存更健康，維持“審慎增持”評級，目標價146.3港元
機構：興業證券
評級：審慎增持
目標價：146.3港元
投資要點
公司公佈四季度及全年營運表現： 2020Q4 安踏品牌流水同比為低單位數正增 長，FILA 品牌同比為 25-30%正增長，其他品牌（不含 Amer Sports）同比為 50-55%正增長；全年安踏品牌同比為低單位數負增長，FILA 品牌同比為中雙位數正增長，其他品牌同比為 35-50%正增長。
點評：
安踏品牌流水錶現略低於預期；但庫存表現更加健康，且售罄率顯著改善。 安踏品牌流水同比為低單位數正增速，折扣率平均為 7 折左右，同比增加2-3ppt。由於 2020 年疫情影響，公司策略性的在 Q4 優先清理 Q1 庫存，致使四季度新貨訂單減少，且折扣力度加大，導致整體流水錶現略低於預期。但 是，在公司 2020 年“庫存為先”的策略下，Q4 庫銷比略超 5 倍，庫存表現更加健康，利好公司長期發展。同時，Q4 售罄率較去年同期顯著改善，特別是線下售罄率較去年同期提升 9ppt。此外，安踏品牌渠道 D2C 進程加速，到 2020 年底已完成 82%，預計到 2021Q1 將完成全部進程。在受疫情影響較大的地區，公司加快渠道轉型及加速清理庫存，這對安踏品牌 Q4 流水略有負 面影響，但利好其長期業績。 ? FILA 品牌流水持續高增長，且好於預期。Q4 公司策略性調整 FILA 的零售折扣，客單價、連帶率的提高助力四季度 FILA 流水的持續高增長。Q4 FILA庫銷比為 6 倍左右，折扣率 7 折左右，同比增加 2-3ppt，Q4 新品折扣為 8.3-8.4折，由於線上折扣較低，拉低整體折扣水平。
其他品牌流水同比為 55-60%的高增長。Q4 迪桑特零售流水 YoY+80%以 上，KOLON SPORTS 零售流水 YoY+30-40%。由於迪桑特與 KOLON SPORTS冬季厚衣服佔比較多，利好其四季度冬衣產品銷售。
上調目標價至 146.3 港元，且維持審慎增持評級。我們持續看好公司多品牌、拓品類、全渠道、新零售帶來的業績驅動，預計 2020/2021/2022 年營收為 363.1 億元/425.4 億元/489.1 億元，同比+7.0%/+17.1%/+15.0%；歸母淨利潤 50.9 億元/77.9 億元/95.8 億元，同比-4.8%/+53.2%/+23%；EPS 分別為 1.89元 /2.90 元 /3.57 元 ， 當前股價 對 應 2020/2021/2022 年 P/E 分 別 為57.2/37.3x/30.4x，上調公司目標價至 146.3 港元，維持審慎增持評級。
風險提示：行業競爭加劇，新開門店低於預期，新品牌推廣費用超出預期。
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