日清食品(01475.HK)：4Q2020中、港兩地業務有望維持雙位數增長，維持“買入”評級，目標價 7.7 港元
機構：國元國際
評級：買入
目標價 ：7.7 港元
投資要點
疫情再次爆發，香港業務收入保持良好增勢： 進入 4Q2020，中國香港疫情再次反覆，政府進一步收緊防疫措施，繼續提 振方便食品的消費需求，預期四季度，公司於香港地區收入仍可實現雙位 數字增長。經營利潤方面，由於前三季度公司在廣吿及促銷費用的投入較 少，考慮到既定的費用預算，4Q 公司加大廣吿及促銷投入，導致費用率環 比 3Q 有較大幅度提升，全年來看銷售費用率預期維持穩定。
高端方便麪好於行業整體，內地可維持雙位數增長： 中國內地在疫情得到逐步緩解後，整體方便麪市場銷售回落，但高端方便 面依舊保持領先於行業的增速，公司專注於高端方便麪細分市場，預期 4Q 內地業務收入同比雙位數增長態勢亦可維持。經營利潤方面，3Q 因公司在 華東市場有較多的廣吿及促銷費用投入，導致經營利潤同比下滑 15%，4Q 費用投放回歸正常水平，經營利潤預期同比增速回正。
2021 年需求迴歸常態化，利潤端可能面臨壓力： 2021 年在疫情不再大規模爆發的預期之下，預計中國地區在持續擴大渠道 網絡覆蓋下，營收增速將維持 10%以上；香港地區因方便麪市場相對成熟， 滲透率和人均消費量已達較高水平，預計營收將保持中低單位數增長。而 利潤端，考慮到市場日趨激烈的競爭環境、原材料價格壓力、以及利潤率 較低的上海合營公司銷售規模的擴大，利潤端可能面臨壓力，但有望通過 規模效應的提高、有效的成本管控以及產品結構的優化得到部分緩解。
維持“買入”評級，目標價 7.7 港元： 因 4Q20 香港地區業務收入好於預期，我們上調 2020 年收入預測，同時考 慮到同期高基數及利潤端可能面臨的壓力，我們下調 2021 年盈利預測。預 計 2020-2022 年 EPS 分別為 0.29/0.31/0.36 港元，相應下調目標價至 7.7 港 元，對應 2021 年 24.6 倍 PE。公司自上市至今的平均市盈率為 26.9 倍，當 前估值低於歷史平均，公司專注於高端方便麪細分市場，尚有較多空白市 場有待開拓，未來仍具發展潛力。維持“買入”評級。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
