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盈選報告 | 港股喜迎開門紅,2021年“明明白白”的牛市已啓動

2020年恆生指數以3.4%的跌幅跑輸A股及美股等全球主要股票市場,主要是受到國際方面的負面衝擊較大。2021年的首個交易日,恆生指數以0.89%的收盤漲幅喜迎開門紅,是否預示着今年牛市初啓呢?

從各機構的研報來看,普遍對今年港股市場表示樂觀,在經濟基本面、政治政策面、資金流向面,港股都將迎來明顯的改善。

方正證券看好的理由如下,一是全球基本面逐漸向好,中國經濟已全面恢復,香港經濟開始觸底有望反彈,而美國經濟也將在今年回暖;二是拜登當選美國總統後中美關係不會變的更差,有些方面有望緩和,外國公司問責法有利於中概股加速回港上市;三是AH股溢價仍在高位,但AH股淨利潤同比增速趨勢相同,說明H股長期仍有上漲空間,且港股估值仍然低於A股和美股。

國盛證券認爲2021年港股將迎來一輪“明明白白”的牛市,首先時間“明白”,全球經濟復甦,不確定性漸退,迎來風險偏好修復的窗口;其次邏輯“明白”,利好因素包括港股背靠中國大陸,基本面將領跑全球,估值窪地,人民幣升值,指數改革,南下資金搶奪定價權;最後結構“明白”,即關注科技巨頭和低估值高性價比的金融地產龍頭。

浙商證券稱,美元指數走弱、較高的中美利差將推動人民幣升值,從而帶動港股盈利和股價上升;AH溢價指數走高、新經濟行業市值增加吸引南下資金流入;中概股迴歸吸引更多資金配置。

國信證券認爲港股今年的全面復甦可期,成長型和週期股將跑出。核心邏輯包括:一香港動盪時期已過,影響香港經濟的疫情因素將隨疫苗廣泛接種而消除,預期香港經濟今年二季度將築底回升;二拜登上任美國總統,儘管針對中國態度不變,但手段將與特朗普大相徑庭,預期股市黑天鵝事件將大幅減少,地緣政治考慮相應縮減,投資者將回歸價值投資,宏觀經濟政策對股市影響強度增加;三今年是十四五開局之年,中國宏觀經濟政策轉向和微觀行業政策扶助將爲股市帶來催化劑。

對於具體的行業部署,機構主要建議關注新經濟和順週期。

方正證券認爲新經濟成長股是主線,包括科技、消費、醫藥、先進製造和新能源,這些行業具有估值溢價,龍頭在2020年領跑港股,2021年也將持續。此外,以銀行爲代表的低估值、高股息等週期股安全邊際凸顯。

浙商證券建議關注三條投資主線,汽車、紡織服裝、輕工製造、可選消費等順週期行業;銀行、房地產、建築材料等高股息行業;生物醫藥、資訊科技等新經濟行業。

國信證券認爲十四五規劃核心相關行業將成爲港股中長線主軸。內需消費:體育服裝、汽車、物業管理、醫療、教育;大數據/數字經濟:科技龍頭、雲計算、在線業務;能源革命:清潔能源、風電、天燃氣;憧憬疫情消失,經濟全面復甦,行業恢復正常的週期股:本地股(收租地產、銀行、零售)、餐飲、影業、澳門博彩和手機設備。

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