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食品飲料行業:2021年,汾酒持續深化改革,酒鬼發力佈局空白市場,維持“強大於市”行業評級
格隆匯 12-30 10:34

機構:萬聯證券

評級:強大於市

行業核心觀點:

上週(2020年12月21日-2020年12月25日)上證綜指上漲0.05%,申萬食品飲料指數下降0.68%,跑輸上證綜指0.73個百分點,在申萬28個一級子行業中排名第18。各子板塊除調味發酵品(+3.85%)之外整體小幅下跌。我們建議關注市場空間廣闊兼具龍頭市佔率提升邏輯的滷製品、調味品板塊細分龍頭;疫情影響減弱趨勢不變,建議關注可選品類修復帶來的投資機會,如短期受益於餐飲恢復、提價預期,長期結構升級大邏輯不變,利潤快速釋放的啤酒板塊;大眾品板塊在成本壓力下,提價預期升温,或催化新一輪行情,估值整體處於相對高位,建議關注回調配置時機。白酒方面,臨近年底,建議關注各大酒企來年及長期規劃。高端酒仍是我們認為長期擴容,短期業績確定性最強的優選賽道,我們繼續推薦高端白酒板塊。

投資要點:

白酒每週談:上週白酒板塊下跌0.53%,金種子酒(+14.81%)、古井貢B(+6.13%)、瀘州老窖(+4.04%)漲幅前三。

貴州茅台:受國家市場監督管理總局辦公廳發佈的關於加強2021年元旦春節期間市場價格茅台等白酒價格監管的通知影響,上週普飛批價總體小幅回落,20年飛天茅台批價從2840下降至2815左右,飛天散瓶價格在2390元到2410元之間浮動。茅台集團擬通過無償劃轉方式將持有的本公司5024萬股股份(佔本公司總股本的4.00%)劃轉至貴州省國有資本運營有限責任公司。本次無償劃轉完成後,茅台集團將持有本公司6.78億股股份,佔本公司總股本的54.00%,貴州省國有資本運營有限責任公司持有本公司5882.39萬股股份,佔本公司總股本的4.68%。

山西汾酒:汾酒未來五大營銷改革任務發佈:一是推薦關鍵變革,營銷理論建設實現突破;二是推進數字化變革,營銷信息化建設實現重大突破;三是推進區域化管理,選人用人制度實現重大突破;四是推進專業化管理品牌建設;五是推進全國化佈局。2021年為深度調整期,調整經銷商結構,創新營銷體系管理,升級產品,淨化市場,提升國際化動力,聚焦品牌,提升經銷商利潤。

酒鬼酒:2021年酒鬼酒要實現全面佈局空白市場,在省外地級城市客户覆蓋率達到100%、省內縣級城市客户覆蓋率達到100%,特別偏遠地級城市覆蓋率不低於90%。酒鬼酒方面也表示,“十四五”期間,酒鬼酒業績力爭突破30億、跨越50億、爭取邁向100億。酒鬼酒營銷團隊規模即將突破千人,這一數據在2019年底約為400人。

風險因素:1.政策風險2.食品安全風險3.疫情風險4.原材料價格風險5.經濟增速不及預期風險

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