新天绿色能源(00956.HK)：A股增发支持LNG业务发展，把握行业长期机遇，给予“增持”评级，目标价2.30港元
机构：中泰证券
评级：增持
目标价：2.30港元
Ａ股增发支持唐山 LNG 项目发展，把握国家 2060 年碳中和目标所带来的长期机遇公司近日公布，有意增发不超过 11.5 亿 A 股(600956 SH)股份，集资总额最多 51.1 亿人民币。资金主要用于开发唐山液化天然气(“LNG”)项目(第一及第二阶段)及唐山 LNG 接收站外输管线项目(曹宝段及宝清段)。唐山 LNG 项目(第一及第二阶段)计划分别于 2022 年及2025 年建成投产。前者包括四座 20 万方的 LNG 储罐及一座 8-26.6 万方 LNG 船舶接卸泊位；后者则包括八座 20 万方 LNG 储罐及一座 1-26.6 万方 LNG 船舶接卸泊位。LNG 接收站外输管线项目则预计于 2022 年建成投产。由于中央早前宣布在 2060 年实现碳中和目标，中国天然气使用可望加快增长。公司发展上述项目，正好把握行业长期机遇，满足京津冀地区天然气需求。
股份增发提升 A 股占比，可增强市场对公司的关注
此次增发计划将增加公司总股本30.0%，盈利摊薄效应看起来较大。但公司大股东河北建投(河北省国资委旗下全资企业)将最少认购实际增发股数的 48.73%(即约 5.6 亿股份，不 高于 6.6 亿股份)，持股比率将介乎 48.73%至 50.70%，主要股东身份不变动。另外，可流通 A 股股份(不含河北建投)占公司总股本的比例将由目前 3.5%上升最多至增发后的14.5%。这有助公司吸纳更多较熟悉中国天然气行业的境内投资者，可增强市场对公司的关注，从而技术上有利公司股价。
重申“增持”评级
股份增发目前有待股东大会及中证监批准，我们预计可以在 2021 年下半年完成。待计划详情进一步落实后，我们将更新财务模型。我们目前不调整 2020 年-2022 年盈利预测，并维持贴现现金流分析(DCF)推算的 2.30 港元目标价，这对应 5.6 倍 2021 年市盈率和 8.0%上升空间，重申“增持”评级。
风险提示：(一)项目开发延误、(二)应收账款风险、(三)并网电价下跌。
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