《大行报告》中金:留意中芯(00981.HK)短期供应链是否稳定 料工艺成熟影响长期可控
中金发表报告表示,就美国商务部公布中芯国际(00981.HK)及相关实体正式被列入实体清单,据该行以往的研究结论(非美国企业如何判定是否受美国出口管理条例约束等),原则上,任何美国技术成分占比超过25%的半导体设备/材料/EDA软件等向中芯出口时,均需要事先获得美国商务部许可。而且美国商务部指出,原则上禁止向中芯国际出口专门用於10nm及以下先进工艺的设备等产品。
该行认为,中芯先进工艺扩产面临挑战,正常生产是否受影响有待观察,指目前中芯国际14nm及以下先进制程的研发及量产,主要由子公司中芯南方承担(该行预计其2020年收入占合并报表口径比例小於2%),截至目前,该行测算中芯南方的投资金额约为70亿美元。此次中芯及相关实体被列入实体清单後,原则上美国将禁止向中芯及相关实体出口10nm以下设备及材料。由於短期美国设备的不可替代性,认为未来中芯南方扩产可能面临较大挑战。
半导体生产过程中,需要特殊气体(美国气体),抛光垫(陶氏化学)等美国产材料,这些材料是否会受限,对目前产能的生产是否会造成影响有待观察。该行认为中芯成熟工艺影响长期可控,短期留意供应链稳定,对於10nm以上制程,中芯在生产中除了会使用美国设备以外,也会采购美国产半导体材料(如气体等电子化学品)及EDA软件。该行预计中芯在向美国政府申请出口许可的同时,也会积极导入日本、欧洲及国产等新供应商,长期来看影响有限,但短期是否会对供应链稳定造成影响有待观察。
对供应链的影响方面,中金认为中芯作为全球第五大(按去年年收入口径)代工厂,该行认为,公司被列入实体清单後,下游客户可能面临设备及原材料的重新验证,短期是否会出现交付延迟等问题有待观察。
中金指维持中芯盈利预测,维持对其H股的「跑赢行业」评级及目标价25.5元不变。
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