美联:若疫情获控制料明年本港楼价稳中向好 移民未必对楼市起大冲击
美联物业住宅部行政总裁布少明在明年楼市展望网上会议表示,本港息率低企,加上市场资金充裕及供应未到位,若新型肺炎疫情获得良好控制,估计明年本港楼价会稳中向好。
他指,楼市走势需视乎疫情发展及失业率表现,近日疫情回升令市场减价盘增加,议价空间约3%至5%,买家见有减价亦加速入市。而未来要留意失业问题会否蔓延至地产、金融等行业,一旦失业率恶化可能对楼市造成影响,但目前未见此情况。他又提到,近月查询移民数量有增加,移民盘亦有出现但数目较查询移民量少,相信现时较多人倾向选择移民不移居,未必会出售物业,估计对楼市未必起很大冲击。
另外,美联物业首席分析师刘嘉辉提到,今年住宅交投出现一手跌二手升现象,一手成交宗数预期跌至约1.45万宗,料为2014年之後的新低,但由於发展推盘强无大减价,成交额预期仍有约1,620亿元。而今年二手成交升至4.7万宗,成交额亦增至3,770亿元。
他估计,明年新盘销售量或重上1.8万伙的水平,金额更有机会创「一手销售条例」以来新高;二手则再度「量额齐升」,宗数有机会达至5万宗,创9年新高,金额或创11年新高。
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