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鋰電板塊再度瘋漲,原材料漲價潮12月持續上演!
格隆匯 12-08 13:18

鋰電板塊再度瘋漲,原材料漲價潮12月持續上演!12月8日早盤,A股鋰電板塊再度強勢走高,截止至目前,華自科技、天際股份、天賜材料漲停,新宙邦、杉杉股份、當升科技等大漲,逼近漲停。

其中,不少個股創下歷史新高,例如新宙邦早盤大漲10%左右,股價報98.03元。總市值邁入400億元大關。

究其鋰電板塊的上漲原因,主要是延續新能源汽車產業鏈高景氣,疊加鋰電材料各環節近期漲價不斷。

事實上,今年上半年由於疫情衝擊,國內新能源汽車銷量同比大幅下降。據中汽協數據,1-6月國內新能源汽車銷量36.90萬輛,同比下降41.15%。下半年疫情影響減弱,國內新能源汽車銷量呈現出同比降幅逐月收窄、環比逐月增長的趨勢。10月國內新能源汽車銷量16萬輛,同比翻倍增長,環比增長15.99%,1-10月累計銷量90.10萬輛,同比下降7.10%。

汽車工業協會和乘聯會的11月份銷量數據還沒出爐,新能源汽車企業已陸續曬出成績單。從目前公佈的數據來看,11月份,新能源汽車市場繼續保持強勢增長勢頭。

11月份,比亞迪新能源汽車銷售26690輛,同比增長138%,其中純電動汽車銷量為18220輛,同比增長128%。蔚來汽車交付5291輛,截止到11月底,蔚來品牌2020年已累計交付36721輛,同比上漲111.1%。小鵬汽車銷售4224輛,創2020年單月銷量記錄,其中小鵬P7銷售2732輛,小鵬G3銷售1492輛等等。

與此同時,今年海外新能源汽車市場也利好不斷。德國連續加碼新能源汽車補貼、歐盟擬免除零排放汽車增值税以及法國發布88億歐元的汽車援助計劃等。

中銀國際預計,2020年全球新能源汽車銷量275萬輛,同比增長27.46%,其中海外市場銷量150萬輛,同比增長56.97%,成為全球銷量增長的主要動力。2020年年底基數疊加新車型密集推出,預計2021年全球銷量390萬輛,同比增長41.80%,其中中國銷量175萬輛,同比增長40.00%,海外銷量215萬輛,同比增長43.33%,帶動產業鏈需求高增長。

在新能源車高景氣的大背景下,進入12月以來,鋰電其他關鍵材料價格相繼漲價。其中,六氟磷酸鋰在12月2日由9.15萬元/噸跳漲至10.75萬元/噸,漲幅達16.41%;12月4日,正極材料三元6系、三元5系以及磷酸鐵鋰分別漲價2000元、1000元和500元/噸,碳酸鋰漲價1000元/噸。根據下游整車企業和電池廠商的排產計劃來看,12月鋰電材料需求旺盛,價格上漲有望持續。

整體而言,新能源汽車的景氣度回升,使得佔新能源汽車成本最高的鋰電池的需求加快。其中鋰電的上游四大材料由於長期行業競爭激烈,產能結構性過程,價格長期處於下降趨勢。今年疫情的影響,很多廠商產能進一步收縮或者退出。下半年的需求的突然增加,使得供給局部短期,產品價格持續提高。

由於鋰電池的一致性要求高,對質量的穩定性要求極為嚴格,因此儘管供給端產能馬上增加,但是新增產還需要經歷送樣階段等考核流程,時間較長。因此具有規模和質量穩定性的龍頭企業受益情況更高。

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