中教控股(00839.HK)2020年報點評：內生外延並進，蓄力海內外協同，維持“買入”評級
機構：國信證券
評級：買入
業績如期釋放，超出市場預期
FY2020 實現營收 26.78 億元（+37.0%）。毛利潤 16.01 億元（+42.8%），經調整淨利潤 9.84 億元（+28.7%）。受新併購的海外學校銷售費用高的影響，銷售費用率上升至 4.8%（+2.2%）；受益於公司優秀的整合能力，管理費用率和財務費用率都有所優化，分別下降至 13.2%（-4.3%） 和 3.3%（-1.8%）。
新建校園與轉設進展順利
公司位於粵港澳大灣區的學校廣東白雲學院、廣州松田學院為進一步
擴大辦學規模，建設新校區，佔地面積分別達 750 畝和 1500 畝。廣東白雲學院新校區一期可容納 8000 名學生，已於 2019 年 9 月投入使用；二期可容納 1.8 萬名學生，預計於明年夏季完工。公司旗下三所獨立院校已全部通過省教廳轉設審批，兩所通過教育部審批。未來隨校園容量的提升、轉設的完成，公司將實現學生規模，進而收入、利潤規模的提升；同時給大校的合作管理費將轉化為一次性費用進行衝減，隨後利潤率有望持續優化。
併購整合效果顯現，國際化辦學促進海內外協同
FY2019 因併購獨立學院所導致的毛利率下降在本財年有所改善，併購整合效果初顯，體現出公司成熟的管理運營能力。本財年新併購兩所海外院校，都擁有碩士學位授予權。公司計劃開展三年國內本科+一年海外碩士的課程，促進海內外協同辦學，提升學生所獲文憑的含金量。
上調盈利預測，維持合理估值區間和“買入”評級
上調對公司的盈利預測。預計 FY2021-2023 的收入分別為 37.14、 44.85 和 53.64 億元；同比增速分別為 38.7%、20.8%、19.6%。調整後淨利潤為12.19、15.66和 18.69億元；同比增速分別為23.9%、28.5% 和 19.4%。公司 12 月 1 日的收盤價 14.90 港元對應的 2021-2023 年預測 PE 分別為 22.25、17.32、14.51 倍。維持 “買入”評級，上調合理估值區間至 18.66~19.90 港元（前值為 14.73~15.71 港元）。
風險提示
學校業績增長情況不及預期；法律政策落地情況不及預期。
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