《大行报告》花旗料内银明年盈利转升 普遍升目标价 首选建行及邮储行
阿思达克 12-04 10:57
花旗发表内银股明年展望报告，预期中国明年货币政策正常化，市场关注今年刺激经济的措施或会导致财富差距扩大，指人行较全球其他中央银行一直采取更强硬的立场，强调退出刺激政策的必要性，该行估计内地信贷扩张周期即将结束，并预计2021年社会融资规模和新增贷款增速将放缓，明年社会融资规模从2020年的13.5%降至11.1%、料明年新增贷款增速，将由2020年13.1%降至10.9%，并料内地加快实施的政策以促进直接融资，将在满足公司融资需求方面发挥更大作用。
该行估计，内银股明年收益有望大幅回升(对比2020年第四季)，因中国财政部已扬言希望维持派息稳定；银行收益可受惠经济复步入正轨；内银纯利增长可增加核心资本。此外，该行料内银股各种经营趋势有所改善，料净息差可於明年上半年见底，手续费收入将反弹，并且信贷成本保持稳定，从而支撑了可持续收益复苏。
【料纯利回升 上调目标价】
花旗指，上调对内银股2020年至2022年纯利预测，预计内银今年纯利按年跌2%、料明年纯利可增长4%、料2022年纯利增速加快至6.4%。
该行料内银股在内地利率上升的环境中可跑赢大市，该行更倾向於在资本充足的情况下渴望实现强劲收益增长的银行股，如平安银行和兴业银行；大型银行股中，该行看好邮储银行(01658.HK)和建行(00939.HK)，指为内银H股首选。
花旗上调对工行(01398.HK)目标价由5.78元升至6.48元，维持「买入」评级；该行升建行目标价由7.58元升至8.39元，维持「买入」评级；该行对农行(01288.HK)目标价由3.86元升至4.31元，维持「买入」评级；该行升中行(03988.HK)目标价由3.86元升至4.33元，维持「买入」评级；该行上调招行(03968.HK)目标价由46.67元升至57.37元，维持「买入」评级。
花旗上调邮储银行目标价由4.76元升至6.38元，维持「买入」评级。
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