心动公司(02400.HK)：如何从广告价值看TapTap未来空间？，维持“买入”评级，目标价48.75 港元
机构：国金证券
评级：买入
目标价：48.75 港元
长现基本结论
以广告收入=eCPM×I.M.测算未来广告收入空间，5年内有望达到 60亿。
一、eCPM（千次展示收益） 如何提升：高用户匹配度提高 CTR、年轻化高 LTV 游戏增多拉高 TapTap 整体 CPC： 1）TapTap 用户年轻化，用户定位与广告主要求更加契合：以 Z世代为代表的 TapTap 年轻用户具有高付费潜力；2）预计 TapTap 精准投放能力提升，提高广告与细分用户的匹配度，CTR 提高广告主投放意愿增强；3）TapTap 作为零分成新兴渠道吸引游戏入驻并成为潜在广告主；4）当前 TapTap广告投放竞争分散，预计未来针对年轻人的头部高品质高 LTV 游戏增多，与 TapTap 定向用户广告匹配率提高，一方面提高广告位竞争程度，另一方面高 LTV 游戏广告预算将会更多，平台整体的广告价格有望提升。
二、I.M. （广告展示量）——社区化改版为增加广告位，拓展广告类型奠定基础，展示量有望高速增长。TapTap“社区+渠道”模式拥有更大用户增长空间，有望通过增加广告位，扩展广告形式增加收入：1）社区化模式延长用户停留时间，为增设广告位降低用户排斥感创设条件：TapTap 意欲打破传统渠道身份成长为年轻化社区，社区化改版丰富 UGC 内容产出，增加用户粘性和使用时长，为增设广告位创造前提；2）独占&自研游戏拉动用户增长：得益于优质独占&自研游戏，2020 年上半年月活同比增长 51.9%，预计未来广告主投放意愿增强，广告请求量相应增加。3）丰富广告类型以提高广告匹配率：当前 TapTap 广告形式单一，未来预计更高 eCPM的视频广告等形式增多，提高广告填充率。
投资建议
TapTap平台的成长是未来公司发展的关键，预计 5年后 TapTap广告收入天花板约为 60亿，5年后 TapTap和游戏业务估值合计 493亿元，由于游戏上线节奏较慢及老游戏流水下滑，我们分别下调公司 2020/2021/2022年归母净利润 32%/36%/34%至 3.66/4.64/5.92亿元，EPS分别为 0.81/1.02/1.31元，对应 P/E46.87X/36.96X/28.98X，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示
平台用户增长不及预期；TapTap商业化进展不及预期；头部游戏表现不及预期；即将上线游戏表现不及预期；游戏出海业务发展不及预期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
