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食品飲料:小酒企回調明顯,關注需求復甦龍頭公司,維持“優大於市”行業評級
格隆匯 12-01 09:30

機構:東北證券

評級:優大於市

報告摘要:

本週觀點:白酒:高端酒格局穩固,茅台一枝獨秀,五糧液老窖向千元價格帶邁進;次高端規模增速高,競爭呈加劇態勢。茅台引領下醬酒已經初具規模,成為白酒消費新趨勢,河南山東等地率先起勢,郎酒國台等奮勇爭先。本週小酒企出現明顯回調,白酒行業即將進入春節前縮量挺價期。調味品:行業穩定性逐步加強,潛能充足的低估值龍頭值得關注。部分企業需求端受到疫情紅利影響,迎來新增長。重點關注涪陵榨菜,2019年費用率是公司近年來峯值,基數較大,疊加間接提價提升盈利能力,20Q4業績有較大彈性。大眾品:建議關注近期股價回調且需求逐季度復甦的大眾品龍頭,伊利未來增長確定性強,明年估值具備高性價比,奶價趨勢上漲背景下,行業競爭促銷趨於理性,伊利毛銷差有望進一步擴大,重點推薦伊利股份。絕味目前高勢能門店不斷恢復,且在門店數量高基數背景下,預計明年上半年增速有望保持較高水平,建議關注絕味食品。

市場回顧:本週上證綜指上漲0.91%,滬深300上漲0.76%,食品飲料板塊下跌1.50%,弱於上證綜指和滬深300。食品飲料各子板塊中,白酒下跌0.82%,啤酒下跌1.93%,其它酒類下跌11.52%,軟飲料下跌7.92%,葡萄酒下跌4.94%,黃酒下跌3.16%,肉製品下跌5.75%,調味發酵品下跌2.61%,乳品下跌2.98%,食品綜合下跌5.52%。

數據跟蹤:截止11月27日,京東商城飛天茅台、五糧液、洋河夢之藍、劍南春、水井坊價格分別為1499元、1094元、625元、458元、514元,價格相比上週分別變動0元、-15元、+26元、+20元、9元。

重要研報:有友食品(603697.SH)品類擴張&渠道下沉,鳳爪龍頭迎來新成長。1)品類擴張:2016年起先後推出了豬皮晶、竹筍、豆乾、魷魚、帶魚等新品類,實行差異化的經銷商激勵政策來推動新品的市場推廣。2019年公司針對豬皮晶重點開發B端市場,以火鍋食材切入,公司設立專門部門和近20人的團隊負責火鍋食材類產品的運營管理。火鍋食材市場空間廣闊,豬皮晶有望成為新的增長點。2)渠道下沉:公司不斷加大渠道下沉和精耕細作,華東華南潛力巨大。2019年起對重慶地區繼續細化成4個單元,在川渝以外將加大渠道下沉力度,要求部分地區下沉到縣級市。渠道加速下沉帶來新成長。

風險提示:食品安全風險,宏觀經濟增速放緩

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