2021年交運社服行業投資策略:疫情修復預期貫穿全年,柳暗花明又逢佈局時,給予“看好”行業評級
機構:浙商證券
評級:看好
一、核心觀點
2021年,在疫苗上市預期加強的情況下,國內航班基本恢復正常,國際航班拐點或現,亞太地區航線有望率先恢復,航空機場板塊有望跑贏市場,以及與之高度相關的酒店板塊有望繼續回升,整體業績、估值有望恢復。
離島免税新政實施4個月,銷售表現符合市場預期。離島免税市場由壟斷走向適度競爭,能有效激活市場潛力;市內免税政策有望出台,免税板塊有望繼續維持強勢。
二、2021年展望
海內外疫苗上市有望,疫情修復預期加強。國際航線出現明顯復甦趨勢,其中亞太航線率先反應。需求持續回升,供給短期全方位收緊,供需結構獲改善。
酒店龍頭逆勢擴張,行業集中度逐漸提升,連鎖化滲透率進一步增強。
離島免税進入多運營商競爭階段,21年銷售額有望再上新台階;我們預測市內免税政策有望21年出台,存超預期空間。
三、重點個股未來看點
上海機場:受益於亞太航線恢復預期差,整體免税蛋糕大,上海機場作為我國最大國際航空樞紐,核心地位維持。
中國中免:短期受益離島免税、線上直郵高淨利率保持高速發展,中長期規模、價格、成本對市場份額、利潤率形成支撐。
白雲機場:短期有望受益於亞太航線恢復預期差,中期免税空間巨大。
春秋航空:航空板塊整體預期好轉,時刻資源結構性改善,一線及基地機場佔比提升,並受益於亞太恢復預期差。
首都機場:免税關聯交易被抽成比例下降,王府井或進駐經營免税,利潤彈性釋放。
三大航(國、南、東):受益於國際航線恢復,高固定成本致利潤彈性顯現,全年有望扭虧。
吉祥航空:航空板塊整體預期好轉,核心市場佔比逐漸提升,洲際航線開啟新徵程,公司股份回購彰顯信心。
四、催化劑
1)疫情修復超預期;2)亞太航線領跑,國際航線恢復超預期;3)航空、酒店需求恢復超預期;4)離島免税銷售額超預期。
風險提示:
1、疫情恢復不及預期;
2、宏觀經濟增速不及預期;
3、需求恢復不及預期;
4、離島免税銷售額不及預期;
5、線上免税發展不及預期;
6、油價大幅上漲;
7、匯率風險;
8、免税競爭加劇風險。
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