錦欣生殖(01951.HK):內生增長和併購雙輪驅動,鞏固行業領先優勢,維持“買入”評級,目標價15.51港元
機構:招商銀行
評級:買入
目標價:15.51港元
公司現有醫院網絡在疫情期間極具挑戰性的經營環境下,依然取得了非常好的表現。維持買入評級,目標價提升至 15.51 港元。
疫情期間 HRC 的美國本地週期數創歷史新高。HRC共有 14 名醫生,每位醫生每年產能為 700 個週期。自 2020 年 6 月,HRC 復甦速度遠遠快於美國本土的競爭對手。儘管美國疫情影響了輔助生殖醫院的經營環境,但 HRC 的本土週期從 6 月開始持續環比增加,並於 10 月達到歷史新高。我們預計全球疫情將在 2021 年逐步得到控制,主要是受益於疫苗供應的逐步增加。因此,我們預計 HRC 的國際週期數(大部分國際患者來自中國大陸)將在 2021 年得到顯著恢復。HRC 也在積極進行外延擴張,計劃通過幾項收購共新增 500~600 週期/年。
武漢和老撾的新醫院建設快速推進。公司聘請楊菁教授擔任武漢錦欣醫院的院長,楊教授是輔助生殖領域的著名專家,具備強大的市場號召力。我們期待武漢錦欣醫院將在 2021/2022 年分別完成 1,000/ 2,000 個週期。此外,公司任命公司質控總監耿麗紅博士領銜老撾中心,該院的年產能為3,000週期。我們預計,在中國大陸與老撾的旅行簽證開通後,老撾中心將實現週期數的快速增長。
併購提供可持續增長動力。公司成立以來,通過併購,錦欣的網絡醫院從成都擴展到深圳、美國、老撾和武漢。得益於公司卓越的運營經驗、強大的技術水平、良好的品牌知名度和充足的現金儲備,我們相信併購將持續驅動公司業務擴張。我們預期公司每年完成一到兩筆併購交易,包括在中國大陸以及海外的併購交易。此外,我們預期公司將繼續擴大在深圳的運營能力,以進一步提升其在廣東市場的領先地位。
目標價提升至 15.51 港元。考慮到武漢醫院的快速增長和 HRC 快速恢復,我們將目標價由 13.80 港元上調至 15.51 港元(基於 DCF 模型,WACC:10.2%,永續增長率:3%)。
催化劑:收購優質資產;
風險:疫情影響。

Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.