瑞银料疫苗好消息奠定2021年中正常化的基础 惟失业率维持5%以上直至2022年後期
瑞银投资银行全球研究部发表的经济宏观报告指,将基准预期转至拜登/「分裂」政府情景,此情景中国会分属两党使财政政策受限,而辉瑞疫苗临床实验早期结果的有效性远高於该行之前的假设,但不确定性仍较多,令该行无法调整新冠确诊病例降至零的时点,而其基准情景现假设2021年第四季确诊病例将降至零附近。
该行认为群体免疫时点是服务活动复苏的关键,由於消费者的服务支出占到经济的一半左右,且是受压制的关键领域,对新冠的恐惧是主因。该行在复苏模型中假设随着家庭信心增加,服务支出将在确诊病例降至零附近的前一个季度开始回升。服务业的实际支出仍比疫情前的水准低7%,总消费下滑3%。值得注意的是,相对於收入,支出出现缩水;储蓄率比疫情前高6个百分点。当消费者重新开始消费时,储蓄率应恢复至疫情前水准。
另一方面瑞银认为即使考虑劳动力市场的情况,支出仍受抑制,而在「疫苗早上市」的情景下,该行假设2021年二至四季度消费将年化增长4-5%,压低过高的储蓄率。另外亦假设受抑制的需求将增加一小类、之前被推迟的服务支出,该行假设在基准情景中这类受抑制的需求有所削弱,疫苗晚上市的情景中则不存在。
而在基准情景中,瑞银料失业率将维持在5%以上直至2022年後期,主要因为新冠冲击严重扰乱了劳动力市场;中低收入岗位是失业的重灾区,因此就业受到的影响高於GDP。在基准情景中,失业率不会降至5%以下,直至2022年後期;「疫苗早上市」情景中,则会在明年出现。但失业率与劳动参与率(LFPR)有关,後者仍下滑约2个百分点,假设当新冠病例下降时,学校将全面开放,LFPR从而将大增,阻碍失业率下降的步伐。另外,经济恢复元气会导致LFPR周期性上升,令失业率降幅趋缓。(el/) ~
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