騰訊控股(00700.HK)：符合預期，金融穩健，手遊閃亮，維持“買入”評級，目標價650-703港元
機構：國信證券
評級：買入
目標價：650-703港元
總覽：整體符合預期，手遊增速閃亮
2020Q3，公司實現收入 1254.5 億元人民幣，同比增長 29%，超出彭博一致預期 1%（彭博一致預期為 1238 億人民幣）；歸屬股東淨利潤385.4 億元，同比增長 89%，超出此前市場預期 27%（彭博一致預期為 302.6 億元）；Non-GAAP 下歸母淨利潤 323 億元，同比增長 32%。在經歷過一、二季度閃亮的財報後，整體來看，本季度騰訊表現依舊不錯，端遊、手遊、媒體廣告、金融科技均有亮點。
網絡遊戲：端遊增速轉正，手遊增速再次超過 60%
本季度網絡遊戲業務收入為 414.22 億，同比增長 45%，環比增長 8%，超出彭博一致預期 6%。其中手遊收入為 391.73 億元，同比增長 61%，環比增長 9%；剔除 supercell 影響後，同比增速約 49%。端遊環比恢復正增長，超出此前彭博此前一致預期 9%。遞延收入是利潤的蓄水池，本季度遞延收入為 864 億元，同比增長 59%，環比下滑 2%，同比增速相比一二季度有所下滑，但依然顯著好於去年同期 20pct。
金融科技及雲：Fintech 依舊穩健，雲業務有所拖累
2020Q3，騰訊金融科技及企業服務收入為 332.55 億元，同比增長24%，低於市場預期 4%。主要原因系雲業務短期影響有所拖累，同比增速顯著低於前幾個季度。管理層在電話會議中強調，Fintech 收入增速與前幾個季度幾乎持平，支付業務的利潤率及增速也保持穩定。
投資建議：維持“買入”評級
我們對四季度騰訊的表現充滿信心，上調 2020-2022 年盈利預測，預計 2020-2022 年 Non GAAP 下淨利潤分別為 1233、1511、1802 億元，上調幅度分別為 0.5%、0.5%及 0.2%；上調目標價至 650-703 港幣，上調幅度分別為 8%及 11%，對應 2021 年 PE 為 35-38 倍，相對當前股價估值空間為 13%-22%，繼續維持“買入”評級。
風險提示
遊戲出海政策性風險；新產品上線推遲的風險；新產品用户活躍度不及預期；全球疫情不確定性導致的系統性風險等。
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