花旗:內地平臺經濟反壟斷指南,料對阿里及拼多多影響較大
就內地市場監管總局昨日發佈《關於平台經濟領域的反壟斷指南(徵求意見稿)》,意見稿指平台經濟領域壟斷協議主要是指平台經營者、平台內經營者排除、限制競爭的協議、決定或者其他協同行爲。花旗發表報告表示,綜合了若幹該行認爲可能導致反壟斷行動的關鍵情況,第一是市場參與者使用其平台收集敏感的運營信息,例如價格及銷量,以限制產品價格和數量從以分散市場及抑制新技術。
該行指,第二是市場運營商/其他參與者利用技術、算法或平台規則,直接或間接限制價格或限制競爭;第三是達成獨家協議的市場運營商/其他參與者;第四是不公平的銷售或採購價格;第五是不公平交易條件;第六是對其他市場參與者面臨不公平待遇;第七是該準則禁止市場參與者使用其行政權力、或部門來限制或排除競爭。
阿里拼多多 料受累較大
花旗認爲,內地互聯網股昨日捱沽,相信並非完全是擔心所涉及平台經濟領域觸及屬反壟斷,也可能是新冠疫苗的進展,令市場情緒由行業從技術取向,轉向價值取向。不過,從上述平台經濟領域的反壟斷指南建議的準則來看,該行認爲,如果其中一些準則能夠通過和實施,料可能通過以下方式影響行業發展,首先是在產品/內容推薦方面使用個性化定位工作的貨幣化進程可能將放慢,此會拖累所有電商平台,特別是阿里巴巴(009988.HK)和拼多多(PDD.US) ,考慮到京東(09618.HK) 沽空 $7.18億; 比率 13.815% 的自營電商(1P)零售模式,料所受影響較少。
第二是強制排他性影響方面,料對美團(03698.HK)而言可能是暫時的負面影響,但鑑於未來傭金收取率環境更加透明,該行認爲基於運營效率和有效執行力,美團仍可以保留其運送市場份額。
若撒排他性 或利好京東
另一方面,若然取消「強制排他性」,此或對京東和拼多多有利,因爲兩家公司以前都曾表示相關的憂慮,即由於競爭壓力,一些品牌和商家被迫離開平台。如果要強制執行,該行預計京東Mall將會有更多品牌旗艦店開設;關於「捆綁銷售」方面,該行認爲這可能與加強OTA(Online Travel Agency)有關,即不要在沒有明確通知消費者的情況下進行交叉銷售/自動捆綁帶有機票和旅館或旅館的產品以及乘車接送,因爲在線旅遊行業已在幾年前對自動選擇功能進行了調整,該行認爲在此問題上對OTA的額外影響有限。
花旗指,中資科技股自年初至今已錄強勁的回報,對昨日沽壓並不感驚訝,料短期投資者可能會認爲上述威脅持續,並對行業前景更負面,但該行仍認爲進一步拋售,將對受威脅相對較少的騰訊(00700.HK) 、美團及京東構成買入機會。
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