《大行报告》美银证券:油股吁买中海油及中石油 迎油价反弹及冬季气价上升
美银证券发表报告表示,因OPEC+可能会调整减产协议,加上美药厂宣称旗下研发新冠疫苗有效性逾90%,布兰特期油於本周一每桶价格抽高10%,录近六个月以来最大单日幅。监於中海油(00883.HK)和中石油(00857.HK)与原油价格有高度敏感相关性,料国际油价每桶上涨1美元,将导致中海油和中石油明年盈利预测分别上涨5.9%或4.2%,一旦油价获得支撑,料将触发两股股价迅速上升。
该行指,按中国海关数据显示,10月份中国天然气的表观需求估计为24.8bcm(十亿立方米),按年增长7.5%,今年前十个月的表观需求为260.4bcm,按年增6.2%。随着供暖高峰期临近,中国的一些储气库已开始从接近满负荷的状态抽出天然气,中石化(00386.HK)高管在一次研讨会上表示,中国冬季天然气需求可能按年增长8%。该行认为,如此迅速增长的天然气需求,肯定会在今年冬天支持中石油的天然气销售均价。
美银证券指,於今年3月石油价格一度暴跌,石油公司股票被市场大量抛售,但是,从根本上看,在油价疲软的环境下,中海油和中石油均对成本和资本支出进行了约束,并指中海油是成本最低的上游生产商,在今年上半年成功将其总成本按年减少11.3%至25.7美元/桶油当量,而中石油的今年首九个月运营支出按年亦减少10.7%。
美银证券认为随着中国国内需求的复苏以及原油价格触底反弹,行业情况会持续得到改善,喜爱中海油(予目标价10.5元)及中石油(予H股目标价3.6元),料中海油的资产负债表、成本纪律和可靠的项目渠道(超过30个新项目)可优於同行,而该行亦维持中石油H股「买入」评级,因其估值(市账率仅0.4倍,相对历史平均值为1.2倍,而国际同业更达1.5倍)具有吸引力。
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