靴子落地跌加晶圓供不應求，芯片或開啟新一輪行情
z11月9日，A股芯片個股紛紛異動拉昇，截止發稿時，創業板捷捷微電、同益股份、兆日股份、澄天偉業漲停，4只個股漲幅超10%、主板斯達半導體、立昂微、新潔能漲停，超20只個股漲幅超5%。芯片ETF漲幅近4%，放量成交逾千億。
從盤面來看，前段時間醫藥、新能源等行業持續被機構資金抱團推高，近段時間這兩個熱門行業調整資金流出，去流入新的市場主線。
另一方面芯片已經調整小半年，芯片ETF從7月中旬高點1643.07點，調整至最低1255點附近，回撤最高近20%。
外圍環境改善成為此次芯片行情主要原因，11月初美國總統競選靴子落地，拜登上台既有可能取消近幾年中美貿易戰當中的給中國貿易關税。
科技芯片作為中美貿易衝突的主戰場，尤其是對華為的封鎖一直在持續。在美國總統競選靴子落地疊加拜登上台，外圍環境有望改善，芯片迎來行情。
另外一點，芯片市場8寸晶圓供需失衡再現，2020年10月，晶圓代工產能緊張加劇，交
期由正常的兩個月延長到了四個月。為了確保拿到足夠的產能，不少IC設計廠商已經開始預定 2021年的產能，部分長單甚至下到了2021年第二季度。同時，華潤微三季度以來8寸晶圓製造產線滿載，整體產能利用率在90%以上。
華虹半導體的8寸晶圓製造產線全部滿負荷運行。聯電的8寸晶圓製造產能已滿載至 2021年下半年，並且2020年下半年已針對新追加投片量的訂單漲價10%，在2021年第一季還會再調漲 8寸晶圓代工價格，其中，已經預訂的產能將調漲5-10%幅度，後續追加投片量的訂單，則以漲價後的價格再調漲1-2成左右幅度。
三星則表示針對8英寸產能供不應求的局面正考慮針對旗下的8英寸晶圓廠進行自動化擴建投資，以提高生產效率。
而且，隨着8寸晶圓製造產能供應不足，8寸晶圓代工廠也開始篩選新訂單和調整產品組合，優先生產電源管理IC、CIS、MCU等高毛利率產品。
而毛利率相對偏低的產品（MOSFET、顯示驅動IC等）在搶單中較為弱勢，除非客户加價購買產能，否則可能面臨產品交期延長甚至砍單，此類產能排擠效應和由此導致的漲價缺貨行情延着MOSFET、LCD 顯示驅動IC、電源管理IC進行傳導，並且目前已經推動MOSFET 和 LCD 顯示驅動 IC 的價格上行。
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