【中泰宏观】10月外贸点评：疫情错位，出口延续高增
作者：梁中华 李俊
来源：中泰宏观
1、出口持续超预期。
10月我国以美元计价的出口同比增速扩大至11.4%，超市场预期，较9月份再度上升1.5个百分点。出口的持续高增，主要与海内外疫情再度失控、供应链受到影响有关，当前欧洲疫情仍在持续爆发，多国每日新增病例创新高，英国、德国、法国等均重启封锁措施；而美国近一周新增病例也超10万，远高于第二波疫情，第三波疫情再度袭来。此外，海外复工也在持续推进，也加大了对我国产品的需求。
分国别来看，10月对主要经济体出口增速存在明显分化，对美国出口增速扩大至22.5%，较上月上升1.9个百分点，为18年2月以来新高，是主要贡献；对欧盟（包含英国）出口增速扩大至12.6%，较上月上升0.7个百分点，贡献也较大；对东盟出口增速回落至7.3%，较上月下滑7.1个百分点。而对日本出口增速由负转正至5.7%，较上月大幅上升8.4个百分点。
分产品来看，10月主要产品出口增速同样分化明显，机电产品出口增速为12.9%，较上月上升1.0个百分点；高新技术产品出口增速为4.2%，基本较上月持平；而对农产品出口增速则转负至5.2%，较上月下滑5.7个百分点。
同时，我国疫情相关产品出口增速再度放缓，但仍有一定贡献，如10月医疗仪器及器械出口增速仍高达30.0%，较上月基本持平；纺织纱线、织物及制品出口增速回落至14.9%，如果剔除这些产品，10月出口增速为11.1%。
2、进口涨幅收窄。
10月我国以美元计价的进口增速大幅回落至4.7%，较9月下降8.5个百分点。从美国进口增速仍在扩大，从上月的24.8%上升至33.4%，是主要贡献，这或与中美第一阶段贸易协议有关；而从其他经济体进口增速均在回落，尤其是自东盟进口增速回落了10.5个百分点。
据PIIE测算，前9月我国自美进口协议中覆盖的产品金额占目标的5成多，其中农产品51.6%，制成品57.8%，能源产品34.3%，且10月农产品进口增速也高达增长22.3%。
分产品看，原油4255.8万吨，同比转负至-6.5%，较上月下滑24.0个百分点，进口均价同比跌幅扩大至-31.5%；铁矿砂10674.2万吨，同比增速扩大至15.0%，进口均价为120.0美元/吨，同比大幅反弹至27.6%；集成电路485.1亿个，同比增速收窄至18.0%；未锻轧铜61.8万吨，同比增速收窄至43.8%，进口均价同比扩大至9.4%；大豆868.8万吨，同比增速扩大至40.6%，较上月上升了21.2个百分点。
3、疫情错位，出口仍有支撑。
往前看，海外疫情依旧严峻，欧美疫情再度失控，每日新增病例仍在创新高，尤其是欧洲多国重启了封锁措施，海外经济恢复或继续放缓，对我国外需仍有拖累。此外，美国大选结果仍未揭晓，美国财政刺激方案谈判以及英国脱欧谈判等均陷入僵局，对我国外需也有一定干扰。
由于我国与海外疫情错位，复产复工较快，而海外产业链恢复尚需时日，所以外部对我国产品的进口需求会边际增加，对我国出口仍有较大支撑。
风险提示：疫情扩散，政策变动，贸易问题，全球经济降温。
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