永達汽車(03669.HK)：疫情過後，更顯堅韌，給予“買入”評級，目標價 14.5 港元
機構：中泰國際
評級：買入
目標價：14.5 港元
首次覆蓋，目標價 14.5 港元，27.0%潛在升幅
我們看好永達汽車以銷售豪華和超豪華汽車為主的策略，把握豪華車滲透率持續提升以及居民消費升級的趨勢，以及寶馬和保時捷最大經銷商的地位，保持淨利潤持續高增長。 預期 2020E/2021E/2022E 淨利潤為人民幣 15.6 億/19.5 億/25.8 億元。永達現時估值與港股同業中升控股(881 HK)和美東汽車(1268 HK)仍有 40%-60%折價，考慮到公司於疫情後業績迅速反彈，以及未來保持高增長，我們認為永達現在估值被低估。我們給予公司 13 倍前瞻市盈率，首次覆蓋目標價為 14.50 港元，‘買入’評級。
三季度業務復甦 季度利潤創新高
三季度永達各項業務一洗上半年的疲弱狀態，迅速中疫情中恢復過來。三季度新車銷售銷售量同比上升 30.8%，環比上升 12.3%。收到消費復甦的提振，豪華品牌車銷量更是同比增加了 32.3%。公司前 9 個月累計新車銷量 14 萬輛，較去年同期增加 0.8%；豪華車 9個月累計銷量同比增加 7.3%，佔總銷量的 68.6%。公司第三季淨利潤人民幣 4.8 億元，同比增長 41.2%，創季度淨利潤新高。前 9 個月累計淨利潤人民幣 10.1 億元，同比下降6.0%。我們預期第四季度將保持第三季度的強勢增長。
豪華車市場方興未艾，新車銷量大幅提振
中國是全球最大的豪華車市場，但豪華車滲透率與發達國家比較仍有提升空間。三個因素將持續提升豪華車市場增長：1）居民可支配收入增長；2）汽車金融業務的發展降低了購車門檻；3）主流豪華車廠家不斷引入價格更親民的入門級車型。豪華車銷量將繼續跑贏其他乘用車板塊。未來寶馬和保時捷的產品週期持續向上，推出新車型，產品組合進一步豐富，滿足消費者需求。
售後服務業務保持堅挺
新車銷售業務為售後服務業務累計了龐大的客户基礎 。2019 年售後服務只佔公司收入14.2%，但貢獻了 69.3%的毛利潤。豪華車用户對於價格相對不敏感，但對服務的品質有要求。這類業務的特性在經濟下行週期顯得更為明顯，售後服務成為經銷商拉動利潤的主要動力。預測售後服務佔毛利潤的比例於 2022 年提升至 72.0%。前 9 個月售後服務收入累計同比增加 2.9%。預計第四季度收入保持環比增加，2020E 全年增加 9.0%。
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