白酒為何一直漲?
作者:汪友若
來源: 上海證券報
週四早盤,三大股指大幅高開後呈震盪走勢。截至午間收盤,上證指數報3306.19點,上漲0.88%;深證成指報13818.87點,上漲1.17%;創業板指報2764.46點,上漲0.51%。
白酒、汽車板塊大漲,其中五糧液漲超2%,成為繼茅台之後,白酒股中第二隻總市值突破萬億元的公司。
五糧液總市值突破萬億元關口
週四早盤,白酒股再度成為資金關注的焦點。五糧液大漲2.68%,市值突破一萬億元關口。老白乾酒、酒鬼酒上封漲停,伊力特、青青稞酒、金種子酒等個股全線走高。

其中,五糧液成為白酒板塊第二隻突破萬億元關口的個股,截至午間收盤,五糧液今年以來的累計漲幅已經達到了97.94%,幾近翻倍。

Choice數據顯示,截至午間收盤,五糧液是A股市場第8只總市值在萬億元以上的個股。

從上述表格來看,A股萬億元市值股票高度集中在白酒以及金融兩大板塊中,除貴州茅台、五糧液外,其餘6只個股分別為四家銀行股和兩家保險股。
但從年內股價表現來看,上述八隻個股走勢卻十分迥異。五糧液從年初的五千億市值開始走出翻倍行情。貴州茅台年內的漲幅也超過了45%。
另一方面,銀行股股價年內多數下跌,工商銀行、農業銀行年內跌幅在10%左右。以特色業務著稱的招商銀行年內漲幅超17%,此外中國人壽年內漲幅也超過了20%。
白酒板塊為何一直漲?

從基本面來看,三季報業績略超預期是五糧液近期股價持續走高的主要原因。日前,五糧液三季報出爐,公司前三季度營收、淨利均實現兩位數以上的增長,其中營收424.93億元,同比增長14.53%,同期歸屬於公司股東淨利潤145.45億元,同比增長15.96%。這一淨利潤增速已經超過貴州茅台。
中信建投表示,白酒板塊近期表現強勢,股價逆勢持續走高的狀況主要得益於一線白酒近期紛紛提價,中高端白酒格局逐漸清晰。同時,中高端和次高端白酒的市場佔有率和業績增速整體走強,從前三個季度來看,疫情對其的影響慢慢平復,整個白酒行業正趨於競爭格局良好的狀況。
不過也有市場分析人士認為,白酒行業目前的核心關注點已經從業績轉向估值。從歷史數據來看,目前各酒企估值都處於歷史高位。以申萬行業白酒市盈率為例,目前行業市盈率接近50倍,處於十年來最高值。
可選消費估值性價比明顯
除白酒板塊外,大消費板塊中還有家電以及新能源汽車兩大行業近期表現持續向好。
6000億家電龍頭美的集團今日盤中再度創下88.5元每股的歷史新高。新能源汽車龍頭比亞迪也於今日早盤觸及179.68元的歷史新高。

機構觀點分析認為,家電板塊和汽車板塊當前具有一個共同點,即均處於景氣度持續上行階段,投資者可篩選細分行業龍頭進行佈局。
國泰君安證券策略團隊表示,從三季報來看,消費板塊ROE為11.66%,不改上行通道,但可選消費性價比高於必選消費。可選消費毛利率的復甦值得關注,且估值性價比明顯。可選消費中,酒店、家電、家居等行業龍頭已經在疫情中加速強化行業優勢。行業亮點上,第三季度迅速回升的銷量令新能源汽車表現“一騎絕塵”,相關政策文件出台明確銷量“錨”,新能源汽車業績將持續改善。
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