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穆迪料本港地产商可抵御租金收入下滑 大部分可维持信贷评级
阿思达克 11-03 11:57
评级机构穆迪发表报告指,其覆盖10家本港地产商加权平均EBITDA在2020财年料跌10%至15%,2021财年料再进一步跌5%。即使该行预期零售及办公室租金收入下滑,在充裕财政缓冲及部分公司业务多元化下,大部分覆盖地产商可维持信贷评级。

该行料即使旅游限制放宽,旅客增长亦只会逐步提升。封关及持续经济不确定性料致今年本港零售销售跌25%至30%,明年料反弹10%。

持续租金优惠、出租率及续租租金下降,料致覆盖地产商2020财年加权平均零售租金收入跌约15%,2021财年进一步跌5%至10%。由於九龙仓置业(01997.HK)高度曝露於非必需消费板块,其所受冲击最大。

此外,穆迪称,空置率上升及企业更关注成本减省料致办公室租金下滑,特别是中区。曝露於中区商厦市场的受覆盖地产商办公室租金收入在未来12个月料跌5%至10%。IFC发展公司、置地公司及冠君信托(02778.HK)今年上半年出租率维持高企,该三公司亦面对中区商厦需求转弱的压力。

穆迪补充,住宅楼市方面,在新冠疫情干扰下,料合约销售下滑。但新地(00016.HK)、长实集团(01113.HK)、南丰资本结构仍强劲,源於业务多元化及过去两年预售强劲。

该行续称,对大部分覆盖地产商而言,财务数据转弱的影响属可控。在2020及2021财年,覆盖地产商加权平均经调整净负债/EBITDA比率将由2019财年的2.3倍,上升至介乎2.8倍至3倍;而同期EBITDA/利息比率将由11.1倍转弱至介乎8.2倍至8.9倍。另领展(00823.HK)主力必需品零售市场,将可抵御盈利波动。同时希慎(00014.HK)净负债低企,为集团提供充裕缓冲。

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