《大行报告》美银证券:即使中国暂停采购澳洲煤炭 内地燃料煤价格升幅料仍有限
美银证券发表研究报告,指中国国有公用企业及钢铁企业,接到中国海关通知,需暂停进口澳洲动力煤和焦煤,并於10月9日即时生效。
该行指,估算今年中国进口煤的数字限制在2.7至3亿吨,即相等於今年第四季进口量按增27%,而本地动力煤价亦跌至每吨470元的低位。自今年第二季起,中国已经收紧进口煤政策,包括限制国内港口为总站的申报,以及延长清关时间,令7月至9月的数字下跌40%,在计算所有因素後,估算10-12月的每月进口数字为1,000万至2,000万吨,较9月的1,900万吨为低。
该行又指,中国自澳洲进口煤数量於首八个月上升23%,达去年92%水平,并占整体数字的32%,故相信限制与进口量增加有关,预期年底措施可以放宽,但因近期的政治风险等,市场人士未必愿意接受期间的价格波动风险,或令本地和进口煤价出现较大价差。
该行表示,即使有上述限制,但认为本地煤价上升空间仍然有限,主因电厂的仍有存货,本地产量增,预期短期内焦煤价格有支持,同时预期每1%的煤价升幅,将带动神华(01088.HK)和中煤能源(01898.HK)盈利增长2%及3%。
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