【華創食飲】安琪酵母：Q3預告高增，經營持續向上
作者：華創食飲歐陽予 程航 董廣陽
來源：華創食飲
主要觀點
事項
公司近日發佈 2020 年三季度業績預告，預計2020前三季主營業務收入增長15%-16%，歸母淨利潤同增50%~55%。單Q3來看，預計公司收入同增11%~14%，歸母淨利潤同增39%~55%。
評論
海外業務及小包裝業務持續高增，推動收入維持雙位增長。海外疫情反覆背景下，公司出口業務持續高增，乾酵母繼續強勢搶佔海外市場份額。國內業務方面，B端業務逐步恢復，而家庭小包裝產品銷售增速雖環比有所回落，但仍保持同比較快增長，電商業務維持高增。此外，國內小包裝酵母及海外酵母年內提價效應，對收入維持雙位增長有所貢獻，儘管Q3收入增速環比略放緩，前三季度順利達成全年規劃進度。
Q3業績延續高增，全年業績預期達成概率進一步增強。我們前期報告預計，公司三季度業績維持較高增長，一方面系高毛利的小包裝產品仍維持較快增長導致。小包裝產品噸利約為大包裝產品三倍，其銷售大幅增長推動盈利高增；另一方面，提價效應帶動盈利能力快速提升，今年上半年公司對部分產品提價，Q3人民幣升值背景下公司亦對海外產品進行提價。此外，公司公告披露，Q3收到政府補助約3063萬元，對業績亦有所貢獻。在前三季度業績高增的基礎上，我們前期給予的全年接近14億盈利預測，目前看達成概率在進一步增強。
酵母龍頭持續成長性具備充分支撐。我們認為，安琪來年增長，及突破百億營收後持續成長，均有充分支撐條件。1）海外業務高增大概率延續。目前海外疫情反覆，短期內未看見大幅改善跡象，主食類消費偏剛需，安琪通過前期打開空白市場後，處於持續滲透階段，因此預計公司短期出口業務仍然維持較快增長，保障Q4及明年增長；2）提價效應持續及提價空間抬高。公司海外產品價格低於競品價格約20%，產品需求緊俏使得進一步提價的空間打開，國內市場公司份額集中，議價能力提高亦抬高提價空間；3）國內B端業務逐步恢復，衍生物業務維持較快增長。4）或存在併購整合良機。疫情影響下，中小競品甚至海外龍頭競品經營受較大影響，或存在併購整合良機。
投資建議
經營持續向上，來年增長持續性可期，重申“強推”評級。海外疫情給予安琪海外市場擴張機會，而公司把握住了此次機會，年內經營持續向上，全年盈利預期達成概率進一步增強。展望來年，公司提價能力在今年並未兑現，使得明年提價空間更加充足，若糖蜜成本上漲，或將成為提價催化劑，同時海外市場處於持續滲透期，國內B端業務恢復，均將支撐來年增長的持續性。我們維持2020-2022年EPS預測1.70/1.95/2.25元，對應PE為37/32/28倍，考慮酵母龍頭全球擴張空間和路徑逐步顯現，在當前經營持續向上階段，給予20年45倍PE或21年40倍PE，維持目標價77元，重申“強推”評級。
風險提示
B端恢復進度不及預期、產能釋放不及預期、匯率波動影響、洪澇災害影響等風險。
附錄：財務預測表
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