《大行报告》瑞信料油价明年持续复苏 中资油股首选中海油(00883.HK)
瑞信发表报告指,由於预期原油库存於明年年底可回复至疫情前水平,估计明年油价将逐步复苏,布兰特油价预测料由明年首季的每桶45美元,至明年第四季进一步上升至每桶55美元。该行料布兰特油价於今明两年预测为每桶各42美元及50美元。
於中资三大油企中,瑞信首选为中海油(00883.HK),其次为中石油(00857.HK),最後为中石化(00386.HK),选股偏好与该行对油价的积极看法一致。
该行表示,中海油於油价处每桶约40美元的环境中可有最强劲的盈利势头,且其中旗下离岸业务的产量增长亦为三大中资油企中最高,今年第二季录按年增长11%。该行维持中海油「跑赢大市」评级,目标价12元。
瑞信提到,中石油公布向国家管网公司出售管道资产,公司已一如承诺於今年上半年宣派特别股息,因公司可从交易获得1,190亿元人民币的现金,该行预计中石油在今年将会再派特息,以目前股价计算,其股息收益率达9%,维持中石油「跑赢大市」评级及目标价3.8元。
该行认为,随着炼油供需动态持续恶化,中石化及其他亚洲炼油企业将继续受压,虽然预期中石化今年下半年的盈利将有改善,但市场对公司较高预期,亦代表市场潜在下调对其盈利预测,会继续对其股价构成压力,而该行维持中石化「中性」评级及目标价3.7元。
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