《大行報告》高盛上調國泰(00293.HK)目標價至5.05元 評級「沽售」
高盛發表的研究報告指,考慮到國際航空業前景具挑戰性,新加坡航空及國泰航空(00293.HK)均表明會審視其規模並重整業務及航班,料將於未來數周或數月公布詳情,而新航早前已宣布裁減員工,考慮到這些宣布,該行分析了兩家公司的架構、日程及飛機退役等因素,並與航運及運力等作比對,以評估潛在成削減及經營重組等。
該行估計新航現時公布的航班計劃反映運力供過於求,但在延遲飛機交付及安排飛機退役後,國泰定位將更理想,估計2021財年公司將機位將呈101%供過於求的情況,但估計隨著國際旅遊復甦,到2022財年其客運力將與可用座位公里(ASK)的需求將一致。
而在減值開支方面,該行料新航或出現大額減值開支,但國泰方面考慮到近期已有減值,故料不會出現大規模的撇帳,高盛認為公司有一些較舊的機款,加上在今年上半年亦有撇帳,故料潛在減值將少於10億港元。
該行認為考慮到前景困難,國泰將顯著節省成本,包括裁員等,料其今年員工人數將按年減15%。高盛下調國泰今年每股盈測4%,以反映成本上升;惟上調國泰明後兩年每股盈測分別5%及7%,以反映貨運收入增加預期,及員工成本有望減少。高盛重申予國泰及新航「沽售」評級,認為國際旅遊復甦將較緩慢,而國泰目標價由5元升至5.05元。
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