機械設備行業深度報告：論挖機週期性，淡化週期，增量猶在，給予“優大於勢”行業評級
機構：東北證券
評級：優大於勢
報告摘要：
1、我們判斷產業波動不會這麼大。根據海外成熟市場經驗，產業的增速跟隨着下游固定資產增速的變動而波動。目前弱經濟環境下，下遊需求增速保持穩定問題不大，這與上一輪週期有本質區別。這意味着對於一線客户，影響其盈利能力的4個變量都是偏利好的，對應設備投資回報率是穩定向上的，這種環境下的客户更新需求應該是具備穩定和連貫特性的，這是對行業需求最大的支撐。
2、除了需求外，這幾年行業銷量連創新高，背後原因是下游客户盈利能力持續向好促進行業滲透率提升，並進一步帶動保有規模增長。據草根調研，近幾年一線客户盈利能力在逐步增強，對應其購買設備意願不會弱，目前各類挖機回收期基本在2-3年，即使回落到3-4年也都在正常範圍內，這種盈利狀態背後隱含着對保有量增長的容忍。定性看保有量的增長來自於下游需求絕對規模的增長、應用領域擴大以及人工替代。從海外成熟市場設備的保有量密度看，中國每百萬人口挖機保有量僅758台，相比北美和日本1381台和3471台，差距還很大，國內挖機保有量從理論和實際看仍有進一步提升空間。
3、挖機還有結構性增長點。a）對裝載機的替代:成熟市場挖機銷量要遠高於裝載機，歐洲日本比例分別是3.37/4.39，之前國內的比例一直很低，直到2019年才達到2:1，但挖機裝載機保有量的比例差距還很大，趨勢延續是大概率事件；b）微挖滲透率提升：成熟市場微挖佔比高，普遍在60%左右水平，國內目前僅30%，隨着老齡化及城鎮建設精細化，機械替代人工是趨勢，歐美的今天將是我們的明天。
4、國際市場在加速推進。泵車、起重機等標準品都已經被國產替代，而國產挖機在海外市佔率僅5%左右，空間很大，國產品牌經過幾輪週期洗禮，實力大幅提升，海外市場有望加速推進。進一步通過模型測算，我們判斷國內挖機需求向下有底，綜合疊加考慮對裝載機的替代、微挖滲透率提升以及出口等結構性因素，挖機總體需求有望維持在25-35萬台中樞平台。儘管整體看總需求增速在放緩，但頭部企業優勢進一步強化，強者恆強。製造業規模是核心，頭部企業的體量優勢，能在供應鏈、運營、經銷商等層面形成深厚的護城河，並實現更高盈利水平，同時通過盈利能力壁壘對中小企業進行降維打擊，最大程度享受產業重構紅利，實現強者恆強。
風險提示：宏觀經濟景氣度大幅下降，基建房地產投資不及預期
重點關注：三一重工、恆立液壓、中聯重科、徐工機械
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