新東方在線(01797.HK):持續創新,處於行業領先地位,給予“買入“評級,目標價 42.83 港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:買入
目標價:42.83 港元
據艾瑞諮詢的報告,2020 年中國在線教育市場規模約人民幣 4,004 億元,同比增長 24.1%。根據中國科學院大數據挖掘與知識管理重點實驗室的報告,到 2020 年,中國 K-12 在線教育用户預計將達 6,390 萬,同比增長 139.0%,K-12 在線教育滲透率將達到 35.0%。由於其高增長率和低滲透率,繼續開發 K-12 在低線城市的下沉市場成為線上教育機構的未來發展趨勢。
我們預測新東方在線科技控股有限公司(“新東方在線”或“公司”)2021-2023 財年的股東淨利潤分別為人民幣-476.0 百萬元、-276.2 百萬元和 188.7 百萬元。股東利潤的持續虧損主要是由於 K-12 業務的拓展而增加的教學人員、課程研究費用以及銷售和營銷費用。大學教育業務和機構客户業務收入維持穩定增長以及高毛利率,K-12 教育業務呈現高速拓展,學前教育業務在業務優化後開始貢獻穩定的收入增長。作為目前主要的發展戰略方向,我們預計到 2021 財年末 K-12 業務的收入將佔總收入的 50%以上,並且到 2023 財年公司將開始產生正利潤。
我們首次覆蓋新東方在線並給予 42.83 港元的目標價以及“買入”的投資評級。目標價對應 17.0 倍、12.7 倍和 9.4 倍 2021-2023 財年市銷率。
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