禹洲集團(01628.HK)：股息分派吸引，物管分拆可期，給予“買入”評級，目標價4.46港元
機構：中泰證券
評級：買入
目標價：4.46港元
銷售進展非常積極
公司八月/前八月合約銷售同比增速達88.5%/60.9%至115.2億/654.1億，前八月完成全年銷售目標的65.4%，高於去年同期的全年銷售完成率（54.1%）。下半年可售貨值約1158億人民幣，意味着公司只需達到49.5%的去化率即可實現1000億的銷售目標，達標概率很高。截止20年8月底，公司總土地儲備2144萬方，總貨值4143億，相對2020年銷售目標的總土儲年期為4.1x；一線、二線及準二線城市佔比達90%，平均土地成本6672元/平，相當於20年前八月銷售均價的40.6%，權益比60%。土儲質量好。公司前八月新增257萬平方米土儲，總地價311.6億，權益比約65%，較去年上升；其中通過收併購獲得長實集團（1113HK）的成都南城都匯，總貨值229億，預期淨利潤率可達15%。
中期派息率36.65%
1H20收入同比增20.4%至約140.7億；毛利率由去年同期的27.0%以及全年的26.2%下降至23.4%；SG&A佔收入比重4.0%，低於去年同期的4.3%；期內溢利同比增5.0%至15.4億元，其中非控股權益應占溢利同比增98.2%至5.31億元。應占核心淨利潤（調整計入銷售成本的子公司公允值收益）同比增9.6%至約15.3億。中期宣派股息0.12港元/股，派息率36.65%；值得注意的是，公司自14年以來維持了35%以上的派息率。財務負債表穩健：淨負債率67.9%，短債比34.8%，現金對短債比1.9x。
物管分拆可期
公司於8月25日公告，將考慮分拆物業管理及商業管理服務業務與港交所獨立上市。截止20年中，物業在管面積1322萬平方米，合同面積2206萬平方米；商業在管面積83萬平方米，合同面積94萬平方米。我們預計分拆上市後，物業及商管業務有望以實物分派的形式派發予禹洲集團的股東，根據預期物管IPO估值以及9月15日禹洲集團收盤價，實物分派有望增厚21年派息率約6~8%，21年派息率有望達15.5%~17.5%。
調整盈利預測，調整目標價至4.46港元，重申“買入”評級
綜合考慮疫情影響以及7月以來融資政策收緊，我們下調20/21/22年核心淨利潤8.6%/15.5%/15.8%至40.6億/44.8億/53.4億人民幣。跟隨千億銷售的實現，公司的品牌影響力與融資能力有望進一步提升，長期發展向好；我們亦看好公司穩定而積極的派息政策。我們滾動至20/21年4.8xPE，將目標價略微下調至4.46港元，目標價對應現價有24.6%的升幅。我們維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：（一）房地產政策大幅收緊；（二）人民幣匯率劇烈波動；（三）銷售不達預期
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